Guangze Zhang, Michel Brink, Karen aus der Fünten, Tobias Tröß, Peter Willeit, Tim Meyer, Koen Lemmink, Anne Hecksteden
{"title":"职业足球重返赛场后的受伤风险时间进程","authors":"Guangze Zhang, Michel Brink, Karen aus der Fünten, Tobias Tröß, Peter Willeit, Tim Meyer, Koen Lemmink, Anne Hecksteden","doi":"10.1007/s40279-024-02103-3","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Background</h3><p>Injury risk in professional football (soccer) is increased in the weeks following return-to-play (RTP). However, the time course of injury risk after RTP (the hazard curve) as well as its influencing factors are largely unknown. This knowledge gap, which is arguably due to the volatility of instantaneous risk when calculated for short time intervals, impedes on informed RTP decision making and post-RTP player management.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Objectives</h3><p>This study aimed to characterize the hazard curve for non-contact time-loss injuries after RTP in male professional football and to investigate the influence of the severity of the index injury and playing position.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Methods</h3><p>Media-based injury records from the first German football league were collected over four seasons as previously published. Time-to-event analysis was employed for non-contact time-loss injury after RTP. The Kaplan–Meier survival function was used to calculate the cumulative hazard function, from which the continuous hazard function was retrieved by derivation.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Results</h3><p>There were 1623 observed and 1520 censored events from 646 players analyzed. The overall shape of the hazard curve was compatible with an exponential decline of injury risk, from an approximately two-fold level shortly after RTP towards baseline, with a half-time of about 4 weeks. Interestingly, the peak of the hazard curve was slightly delayed for moderate and more clearly for severe index injuries.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Conclusions</h3><p>The time course of injury risk after RTP (the hazard curve) can be characterized based on the Kaplan–Meier model. The shape of the hazard curve and its influencing factors are of practical as well as methodological relevance and warrant further investigation.</p>","PeriodicalId":21969,"journal":{"name":"Sports Medicine","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Time Course of Injury Risk After Return-to-Play in Professional Football (Soccer)\",\"authors\":\"Guangze Zhang, Michel Brink, Karen aus der Fünten, Tobias Tröß, Peter Willeit, Tim Meyer, Koen Lemmink, Anne Hecksteden\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s40279-024-02103-3\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Background</h3><p>Injury risk in professional football (soccer) is increased in the weeks following return-to-play (RTP). However, the time course of injury risk after RTP (the hazard curve) as well as its influencing factors are largely unknown. This knowledge gap, which is arguably due to the volatility of instantaneous risk when calculated for short time intervals, impedes on informed RTP decision making and post-RTP player management.</p><h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Objectives</h3><p>This study aimed to characterize the hazard curve for non-contact time-loss injuries after RTP in male professional football and to investigate the influence of the severity of the index injury and playing position.</p><h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Methods</h3><p>Media-based injury records from the first German football league were collected over four seasons as previously published. Time-to-event analysis was employed for non-contact time-loss injury after RTP. The Kaplan–Meier survival function was used to calculate the cumulative hazard function, from which the continuous hazard function was retrieved by derivation.</p><h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Results</h3><p>There were 1623 observed and 1520 censored events from 646 players analyzed. The overall shape of the hazard curve was compatible with an exponential decline of injury risk, from an approximately two-fold level shortly after RTP towards baseline, with a half-time of about 4 weeks. Interestingly, the peak of the hazard curve was slightly delayed for moderate and more clearly for severe index injuries.</p><h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Conclusions</h3><p>The time course of injury risk after RTP (the hazard curve) can be characterized based on the Kaplan–Meier model. 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The Time Course of Injury Risk After Return-to-Play in Professional Football (Soccer)
Background
Injury risk in professional football (soccer) is increased in the weeks following return-to-play (RTP). However, the time course of injury risk after RTP (the hazard curve) as well as its influencing factors are largely unknown. This knowledge gap, which is arguably due to the volatility of instantaneous risk when calculated for short time intervals, impedes on informed RTP decision making and post-RTP player management.
Objectives
This study aimed to characterize the hazard curve for non-contact time-loss injuries after RTP in male professional football and to investigate the influence of the severity of the index injury and playing position.
Methods
Media-based injury records from the first German football league were collected over four seasons as previously published. Time-to-event analysis was employed for non-contact time-loss injury after RTP. The Kaplan–Meier survival function was used to calculate the cumulative hazard function, from which the continuous hazard function was retrieved by derivation.
Results
There were 1623 observed and 1520 censored events from 646 players analyzed. The overall shape of the hazard curve was compatible with an exponential decline of injury risk, from an approximately two-fold level shortly after RTP towards baseline, with a half-time of about 4 weeks. Interestingly, the peak of the hazard curve was slightly delayed for moderate and more clearly for severe index injuries.
Conclusions
The time course of injury risk after RTP (the hazard curve) can be characterized based on the Kaplan–Meier model. The shape of the hazard curve and its influencing factors are of practical as well as methodological relevance and warrant further investigation.
期刊介绍:
Sports Medicine focuses on providing definitive and comprehensive review articles that interpret and evaluate current literature, aiming to offer insights into research findings in the sports medicine and exercise field. The journal covers major topics such as sports medicine and sports science, medical syndromes associated with sport and exercise, clinical medicine's role in injury prevention and treatment, exercise for rehabilitation and health, and the application of physiological and biomechanical principles to specific sports.
Types of Articles:
Review Articles: Definitive and comprehensive reviews that interpret and evaluate current literature to provide rationale for and application of research findings.
Leading/Current Opinion Articles: Overviews of contentious or emerging issues in the field.
Original Research Articles: High-quality research articles.
Enhanced Features: Additional features like slide sets, videos, and animations aimed at increasing the visibility, readership, and educational value of the journal's content.
Plain Language Summaries: Summaries accompanying articles to assist readers in understanding important medical advances.
Peer Review Process:
All manuscripts undergo peer review by international experts to ensure quality and rigor. The journal also welcomes Letters to the Editor, which will be considered for publication.