Modelling time-temperature-dependent mortality of pest flies in cold storage to support the management of trade-related biosecurity risks

Cold treatment with rigorous regulatory oversight is often mandated to manage horticultural trade-related biosecurity threats, such as invasive, cold-sensitive fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae). Cold treatment schedules, developed through rigorous laboratory experiments, require a set temperature and duration to ensure at least a probit 8.7 (99.99%) mortality rate, regardless of infestation likelihood. This threshold is costly to demonstrate for each pest and commodity combination and the resultant treatment may be harmful to fruit quality. Moreover, these stringent schedules do not account for cold-induced mortality already occurring in commercial supply chains. We developed a predictive temperature-dependent mortality function using 28 published cold treatment studies of pest fly species to support more flexible and proportionate use of cold treatment. The daily mortality rate was unaffected by the duration of cold exposure (0–20 days). The mortality rate varied primarily by pest species (10 species) and developmental stage (eggs and larval stages), and to a lesser extent by temperature (0–7 °C) and host (13 fruit types). Our model mostly predicted fewer days to meet probit 9.0 mortality compared to empirical results from large-scale studies, suggesting these studies can be overly conservative. By leveraging previous empirical studies, our model enables estimation of temperature-dependent daily mortality for unstudied pest developmental stage host–temperature combinations, which can then be empirically validated through targeted studies. It is hoped these results will shift cold treatment usage from highly regulated, fixed temperature treatments with a target mortality rate requirement to a more flexible approach that accounts for existing commercial supply chain practices and infestation likelihood in produce.