将动态流行病学模型与基于过程的作物模型相结合,模拟气候变化对巴西大豆靶斑病的影响

IF 4.5 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY European Journal of Agronomy Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI:10.1016/j.eja.2024.127361
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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究影响大豆生长发育的因素对于做出明智决策和进行风险分析至关重要,尤其是对巴西具有如此重要经济意义的作物而言。随着世界人口的增加,对大豆副产品的需求预计也会增加,而气候变化会改变植物生理发育的基本条件,并减少病虫害和杂草等因素,从而威胁农业生产。在这种情况下,评估植物病原体在未来情况下的新流行病学条件对于做出最佳决策非常重要。目前,影响巴西大豆种植的最主要病害之一是靶斑病。我们的目标是评估靶斑病对大豆产量的影响,重点关注其在巴西三个主要地区的严重程度。为了准确模拟气候变化对靶斑病流行病学的影响,我们对靶斑病真菌的通用流行病学模型进行了修改,并将其与 DSSAT/CROPGRO 大豆模型动态耦合,从而模拟了各种气候情景下植物与病原体之间的相互作用。结果表明,在所有情景和未来时期,三大地区的大豆产量都有显著增加。病害严重程度也随着时间的推移而变化,在所有情景和地区中,病害严重程度在 2039 年前都有所上升,在 2100 年前则有所下降。其中,SSP1-RCP2.6情景最为稳定,降幅较小,1981-2019年北方地区的相对增幅分别为7.9%(2020-2039年)、9.8%(2040-2069年)和4.8%(2070-2100年);南方地区为16.中部地区为 35 %(2020-2039 年)、13.1 %(2040-2069 年)和 14.45 %(2070-2100 年);南部地区为 3.6 %(2020-2039 年)、6.3 %(2040-2069 年)和 4.02 %(2070-2100 年)。
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Coupling a dynamic epidemiological model into a process-based crop model to simulate climate change effects on soybean target spot disease in Brazil

The study of factors affecting soybean development is crucial for informed decision-making and risk analysis, particularly for a crop of such economic significance to Brazil. With the increase in the world population, the demand for soybean by-products is expected to rise, amid a backdrop of climate change that threatens agricultural production by altering the fundamental conditions of plant physiological development, as well as the reducing factors such as pests, diseases, and weeds. In this context, evaluating the new epidemiological conditions of phytopathogens in future scenarios is important for making the best possible decisions. Currently, one of the most significant diseases affecting soybean cultivation in Brazil is target spot. We aimed to assess the changes that will occur with target spot disease in soybean yield, focusing on its severity across three major regions of Brazil. The major challenge of accurately modeling climate change impacts on target spot epidemiology was addressed by modifying a generic epidemiological model for the target spot fungus and dynamically coupling it with the DSSAT/CROPGRO-Soybean model, enabling the simulation of plant-pathogen interactions under various climate scenarios. The results showed a significant increase in soybean yield across all scenarios and future periods in the three major regions. The disease severity also changed over time, increasing until 2039 and then declining until 2100 in all scenarios and regions. The SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario stood out as the most stable, with smaller declines, and relative increases from 1981 to 2019 of 7.9 % (2020–2039), 9.8 % (2040–2069), and 4.8 % (2070–2100) in the North region; 16.35 % (2020–2039), 13.1 % (2040–2069), and 14.45 % (2070–2100) in the Central region; and 3.6 % (2020–2039), 6.3 % (2040–2069), and 4.02 % (2070–2100) in the South region.

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来源期刊
European Journal of Agronomy
European Journal of Agronomy 农林科学-农艺学
CiteScore
8.30
自引率
7.70%
发文量
187
审稿时长
4.5 months
期刊介绍: The European Journal of Agronomy, the official journal of the European Society for Agronomy, publishes original research papers reporting experimental and theoretical contributions to field-based agronomy and crop science. The journal will consider research at the field level for agricultural, horticultural and tree crops, that uses comprehensive and explanatory approaches. The EJA covers the following topics: crop physiology crop production and management including irrigation, fertilization and soil management agroclimatology and modelling plant-soil relationships crop quality and post-harvest physiology farming and cropping systems agroecosystems and the environment crop-weed interactions and management organic farming horticultural crops papers from the European Society for Agronomy bi-annual meetings In determining the suitability of submitted articles for publication, particular scrutiny is placed on the degree of novelty and significance of the research and the extent to which it adds to existing knowledge in agronomy.
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