{"title":"将动态流行病学模型与基于过程的作物模型相结合,模拟气候变化对巴西大豆靶斑病的影响","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.eja.2024.127361","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The study of factors affecting soybean development is crucial for informed decision-making and risk analysis, particularly for a crop of such economic significance to Brazil. With the increase in the world population, the demand for soybean by-products is expected to rise, amid a backdrop of climate change that threatens agricultural production by altering the fundamental conditions of plant physiological development, as well as the reducing factors such as pests, diseases, and weeds. In this context, evaluating the new epidemiological conditions of phytopathogens in future scenarios is important for making the best possible decisions. Currently, one of the most significant diseases affecting soybean cultivation in Brazil is target spot. We aimed to assess the changes that will occur with target spot disease in soybean yield, focusing on its severity across three major regions of Brazil. The major challenge of accurately modeling climate change impacts on target spot epidemiology was addressed by modifying a generic epidemiological model for the target spot fungus and dynamically coupling it with the DSSAT/CROPGRO-Soybean model, enabling the simulation of plant-pathogen interactions under various climate scenarios. The results showed a significant increase in soybean yield across all scenarios and future periods in the three major regions. The disease severity also changed over time, increasing until 2039 and then declining until 2100 in all scenarios and regions. The SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario stood out as the most stable, with smaller declines, and relative increases from 1981 to 2019 of 7.9 % (2020–2039), 9.8 % (2040–2069), and 4.8 % (2070–2100) in the North region; 16.35 % (2020–2039), 13.1 % (2040–2069), and 14.45 % (2070–2100) in the Central region; and 3.6 % (2020–2039), 6.3 % (2040–2069), and 4.02 % (2070–2100) in the South region.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51045,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Agronomy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Coupling a dynamic epidemiological model into a process-based crop model to simulate climate change effects on soybean target spot disease in Brazil\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.eja.2024.127361\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The study of factors affecting soybean development is crucial for informed decision-making and risk analysis, particularly for a crop of such economic significance to Brazil. With the increase in the world population, the demand for soybean by-products is expected to rise, amid a backdrop of climate change that threatens agricultural production by altering the fundamental conditions of plant physiological development, as well as the reducing factors such as pests, diseases, and weeds. In this context, evaluating the new epidemiological conditions of phytopathogens in future scenarios is important for making the best possible decisions. Currently, one of the most significant diseases affecting soybean cultivation in Brazil is target spot. We aimed to assess the changes that will occur with target spot disease in soybean yield, focusing on its severity across three major regions of Brazil. The major challenge of accurately modeling climate change impacts on target spot epidemiology was addressed by modifying a generic epidemiological model for the target spot fungus and dynamically coupling it with the DSSAT/CROPGRO-Soybean model, enabling the simulation of plant-pathogen interactions under various climate scenarios. The results showed a significant increase in soybean yield across all scenarios and future periods in the three major regions. The disease severity also changed over time, increasing until 2039 and then declining until 2100 in all scenarios and regions. The SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario stood out as the most stable, with smaller declines, and relative increases from 1981 to 2019 of 7.9 % (2020–2039), 9.8 % (2040–2069), and 4.8 % (2070–2100) in the North region; 16.35 % (2020–2039), 13.1 % (2040–2069), and 14.45 % (2070–2100) in the Central region; and 3.6 % (2020–2039), 6.3 % (2040–2069), and 4.02 % (2070–2100) in the South region.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":51045,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"European Journal of Agronomy\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-17\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"European Journal of Agronomy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S116103012400282X\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"AGRONOMY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European Journal of Agronomy","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S116103012400282X","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AGRONOMY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Coupling a dynamic epidemiological model into a process-based crop model to simulate climate change effects on soybean target spot disease in Brazil
The study of factors affecting soybean development is crucial for informed decision-making and risk analysis, particularly for a crop of such economic significance to Brazil. With the increase in the world population, the demand for soybean by-products is expected to rise, amid a backdrop of climate change that threatens agricultural production by altering the fundamental conditions of plant physiological development, as well as the reducing factors such as pests, diseases, and weeds. In this context, evaluating the new epidemiological conditions of phytopathogens in future scenarios is important for making the best possible decisions. Currently, one of the most significant diseases affecting soybean cultivation in Brazil is target spot. We aimed to assess the changes that will occur with target spot disease in soybean yield, focusing on its severity across three major regions of Brazil. The major challenge of accurately modeling climate change impacts on target spot epidemiology was addressed by modifying a generic epidemiological model for the target spot fungus and dynamically coupling it with the DSSAT/CROPGRO-Soybean model, enabling the simulation of plant-pathogen interactions under various climate scenarios. The results showed a significant increase in soybean yield across all scenarios and future periods in the three major regions. The disease severity also changed over time, increasing until 2039 and then declining until 2100 in all scenarios and regions. The SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario stood out as the most stable, with smaller declines, and relative increases from 1981 to 2019 of 7.9 % (2020–2039), 9.8 % (2040–2069), and 4.8 % (2070–2100) in the North region; 16.35 % (2020–2039), 13.1 % (2040–2069), and 14.45 % (2070–2100) in the Central region; and 3.6 % (2020–2039), 6.3 % (2040–2069), and 4.02 % (2070–2100) in the South region.
期刊介绍:
The European Journal of Agronomy, the official journal of the European Society for Agronomy, publishes original research papers reporting experimental and theoretical contributions to field-based agronomy and crop science. The journal will consider research at the field level for agricultural, horticultural and tree crops, that uses comprehensive and explanatory approaches. The EJA covers the following topics:
crop physiology
crop production and management including irrigation, fertilization and soil management
agroclimatology and modelling
plant-soil relationships
crop quality and post-harvest physiology
farming and cropping systems
agroecosystems and the environment
crop-weed interactions and management
organic farming
horticultural crops
papers from the European Society for Agronomy bi-annual meetings
In determining the suitability of submitted articles for publication, particular scrutiny is placed on the degree of novelty and significance of the research and the extent to which it adds to existing knowledge in agronomy.