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引用次数: 0
摘要
在本文中,我们从长期角度分析了自 19 世纪中叶至今 20 个欧洲国家的非平衡面板中国际贸易与经济增长之间的关系,并对第二次世界大战开始前后的时期进行了区分。为此,我们采用 Juodis 等人(2021 年)针对具有较大横截面和时间序列维度的面板数据模型提出的新方法,对出口与 GDP 之间以及进口与 GDP 之间进行了格兰杰因果关系检验。我们的结果表明,在整个时期和各子时期,两个贸易变量与国内生产总值之间都存在双向关系。
Does international trade promote economic growth? Europe, 19th and 20th centuries
In this paper, we analyse the relationship between international trade and economic growth in an unbalanced panel of 20 European countries in a long-term perspective, since the mid-19th century to present days, differentiating between the periods before and after the start of the Second World War. To this end, we perform Granger-causality tests between exports and GDP, and between imports and GDP, following the novel methodology of Juodis et al. (2021) for panel data models with large cross-sectional and time series dimensions. Our results support the existence of a bi-directional relationship between both trade variables and GDP, for the whole period and across subperiods.
期刊介绍:
Economic Analysis and Policy (established 1970) publishes articles from all branches of economics with a particular focus on research, theoretical and applied, which has strong policy relevance. The journal also publishes survey articles and empirical replications on key policy issues. Authors are expected to highlight the main insights in a non-technical introduction and in the conclusion.