对 2024 年 4 月/5 月巴西南部极端降水的多尺度分析

IF 2.5 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Atmosphere Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI:10.3390/atmos15091123
Michelle Simões Reboita, Enrique Vieira Mattos, Bruno César Capucin, Diego Oliveira de Souza, Glauber Willian de Souza Ferreira
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引用次数: 0

摘要

自 2020 年以来,巴西南部的南里奥格兰德州(Rio Grande do Sul,RS)一直受到不同大气系统造成的极端降水事件的影响。然而,最极端的降水发生在 2024 年 4 月底至 5 月初。这次极端降水导致该州大部分地区发生洪灾,2,398,255 人受灾,183 人死亡,27 人失踪。鉴于此次事件的严重性,我们需要了解其驱动因素。在此背景下,本研究的主要目标是对 4 月 26 日至 5 月 5 日期间的极端降水进行多尺度分析,即分析大气的大尺度模式、描述同步环境以及分析中尺度视角(云顶特征和闪电)。这项研究使用了不同来源的数据(再分析、卫星、雷达和雨量计),并采用了不同的方法。国家自然灾害监测和预警中心(CEMADEN)利用位于塞族共和国中北部的 27 个雨量计记录了 4 月 26 日至 5 月 5 日期间超过 400 毫米的累积降雨量。2024 年 4 月和 5 月的月降水量分别达到 667 毫米和 803 毫米,而这两个月的气候平均值分别为 151 毫米和 137 毫米。2024 年 4 月 30 日单日最大降水量为 300 毫米。从大尺度的角度来看,西印度洋的异常热源引发了罗斯比波,导致巴西东南部中段出现气压反气旋异常环流。虽然降水系统在这一地区受到抑制(同步视角),但反气旋环流南侧的反常较强副热带喷流造成了 RS 州上空的抬升,从而为中尺度对流系统(MCS)的发展创造了条件。此外,安第斯山脉以东的低空喷流将暖湿空气输送到巴西南部,这也与 10 天内到达 RS 州的两股冷锋相互作用,帮助形成了降水。据卫星测量观测,严重的深层多层大气环流(云顶温度低于零下 80 摄氏度)造成了较高的闪电率(10 天内闪电次数超过 10 次/平方公里)和累积降水量(10 天内降水量超过 600 毫米)。大量降雨导致土壤湿度增加,超过 0.55 的体积分数,使水难以渗入土壤,从而有利于洪水的发生。
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A Multi-Scale Analysis of the Extreme Precipitation in Southern Brazil in April/May 2024
Since 2020, southern Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul (RS) State has been affected by extreme precipitation episodes caused by different atmospheric systems. However, the most extreme was registered between the end of April and the beginning of May 2024. This extreme precipitation caused floods in most parts of the state, affecting 2,398,255 people and leading to 183 deaths and 27 missing persons. Due to the severity of this episode, we need to understand its drivers. In this context, the main objective of this study is a multi-scale analysis of the extreme precipitation between 26 April and 5 May, i.e., an analysis of the large-scale patterns of the atmosphere, a description of the synoptic environment, and an analysis of the mesoscale viewpoint (cloud-top features and lightning). Data from different sources (reanalysis, satellite, radar, and pluviometers) were used in this study, and different methods were applied. The National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) registered accumulated rainfall above 400 mm between 26 April and 5 May using 27 pluviometers located in the central-northern part of RS. The monthly volumes reached 667 mm and 803 mm, respectively, for April and May 2024, against a climatological average of 151 mm and 137 mm for these months. The maximum precipitation recorded was 300 mm in a single day on 30 April 2024. From a large-scale point of view, an anomalous heat source in the western Indian Ocean triggered a Rossby wave that contributed to a barotropic anticyclonic anomalous circulation over mid-southeastern Brazil. While the precipitant systems were inhibited over this region (the synoptic view), the anomalous stronger subtropical jet southward of the anticyclonic circulation caused uplift over RS State and, consequently, conditions leading to mesoscale convective system (MCS) development. In addition, the low-level jet east of the Andes transported warm and moist air to southern Brazil, which also interacted with two cold fronts that reached RS during the 10-day period, helping to establish the precipitation. Severe deep MCSs (with a cloud-top temperature lower than −80 °C) were responsible for a high lightning rate (above 10 flashes km−2 in 10 days) and accumulated precipitation (above 600 mm in 10 days), as observed by satellite measurements. This high volume of rainfall caused an increase in soil moisture, which exceeded a volume fraction of 0.55, making water infiltration into the soil difficult and, consequently, favoring flood occurrence.
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来源期刊
Atmosphere
Atmosphere METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
13.80%
发文量
1769
审稿时长
1 months
期刊介绍: Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433) is an international and cross-disciplinary scholarly journal of scientific studies related to the atmosphere. It publishes reviews, regular research papers, communications and short notes, and there is no restriction on the length of the papers. Our aim is to encourage scientists to publish their experimental and theoretical research in as much detail as possible. Full experimental and/or methodical details must be provided for research articles.
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