通过大规模耕作释放氮管理潜力,提高空气质量并带来可观的共同效益

IF 16.3 1区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES National Science Review Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI:10.1093/nsr/nwae324
Baojie Li, Hong Liao, Ke Li, Ye Wang, Lin Zhang, Yixin Guo, Lei Liu, Jingyi Li, Jianbing Jin, Yang Yang, Cheng Gong, Teng Wang, Weishou Shen, Pinya Wang, Ruijun Dang, Kaihua Liao, Qing Zhu, Daniel J Jacob
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引用次数: 0

摘要

小农耕作中低效的氮管理所产生的氨气(NH3)排放不受管制,阻碍了中国空气质量的持续改善。尽管中国政府正在推动向规模化农业的政策转变,但将其与氮管理相结合所产生的效益仍不明确。在此,我们通过结合地理统计分析、高分辨率排放清单、农场调查和空气质量建模进行综合评估,填补了这一空白。由于 PM2.5 化学成分的非线性变化,以小农为主的耕作只能减少 13%-31% 的 NH3,导致全国 PM2.5 下降有限。相反,大规模耕作将使氮管理采用率翻番,使 NH3 减排潜力增加到 48%-58%,并使污染地区的 PM2.5 降低 9.4-14.0 μg-m-3。由于大规模畜牧业的局部地区富含 NH3,PM2.5 的估计降幅较为保守。这一战略可防止 30 多万人过早死亡,每年可实现 684-868 亿美元的净效益,为空气质量和农业可持续发展带来巨大利益。
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Unlocking nitrogen management potential via large-scale farming for air quality and substantial Co-benefits
China's sustained air quality improvement is hindered by unregulated ammonia (NH3) emissions from inefficient nitrogen management in smallholder farming. Although the Chinese government is promoting a policy shift to large-scale farming, its benefits when integrated with nitrogen management remain unclear. Here we fill this gap using an integrated assessment by combining geostatistical analysis, high-resolution emission inventories, farm surveys, and air quality modeling. The smallholder-dominated farming allows only 13%–31% NH3 reduction, leading to limited PM2.5 decreases nationally due to nonlinear PM2.5 chemistry. Conversely, large-scale farming would double nitrogen management adoption rates, increasing NH3 reduction potential to 48%–58% and decreasing PM2.5 by 9.4–14.0 μg·m−3 in polluted regions. The estimated PM2.5 reduction is conservative due to localized NH3-rich conditions under large-scale livestock farming. This strategy could prevent over 300 000 premature deaths and achieve a net benefit of ${\$}$68.4–86.8 billion annually, unlocking immense benefits for air quality and agricultural sustainability.
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来源期刊
National Science Review
National Science Review MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES-
CiteScore
24.10
自引率
1.90%
发文量
249
审稿时长
13 weeks
期刊介绍: National Science Review (NSR; ISSN abbreviation: Natl. Sci. Rev.) is an English-language peer-reviewed multidisciplinary open-access scientific journal published by Oxford University Press under the auspices of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.According to Journal Citation Reports, its 2021 impact factor was 23.178. National Science Review publishes both review articles and perspectives as well as original research in the form of brief communications and research articles.
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