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引用次数: 0
摘要
通过一系列引导性问题,可以操纵对民意调查的回应。我们证明,使用经典概率论无法解释这种现象,而量子概率论则有可能提供解释。不过,量子概率论中的可容许变换规则确实对认知行为的建模造成了一些限制,在此重点加以说明。最近,益普索(Ipsos)就英国政治讽刺剧《是的,首相》(textit{Yes, Prime Minister})中汉弗莱-阿普比爵士(Sir Humphrey Appleby)提出的一组问题进行了民意调查,我们以此为重点,说明虽然用量子规则似乎并非不可能,但却无法如此简单地解释得出的数据。
Yes, Prime Minister, question order does matter -- and it's certainly not classical! But is it quantum?
Response to a poll can be manipulated by means of a series of leading
questions. We show that such phenomena cannot be explained by use of classical
probability theory, whereas quantum probability theory admits a possibility of
offering an explanation. Admissible transformation rules in quantum
probability, however, do impose some constraints on the modelling of cognitive
behaviour, which are highlighted here. Focusing on a recent poll conducted by
Ipsos on a set of questions posed by Sir Humphrey Appleby in an episode of the
British political satire \textit{Yes, Prime Minister}, we show that the
resulting data cannot be explained quite so simply using quantum rules,
although it seems not impossible.