基于余额数据的比特币交易行为建模

Yu Zhang, Claudio Tessone
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在分析比特币用户的余额分布时,我们发现它遵循对数正态分布模式。借鉴吉布拉特比例增长定律在解释城市规模和词频分布方面的成功应用,我们测试了同样的原理能否解释比特币余额的对数正态分布。然而,我们的计算显示,漂移项和方差项的指数参数都与 1 略有不同。这表明,吉布拉特的比例增长法则并不能完全解释比特币用户余额的对数正态分布。在探索过程中,我们发现了一个有趣的现象:比特币用户根据他们的行为倾向于分为两个不同的类别,我们称之为 "贫穷 "和 "富有 "用户。贫穷的用户最初只购买少量比特币,他们倾向于先购买更多的比特币,然后随着时间的推移逐渐卖出所有持有的比特币。随着时间的推移,卖出所有比特币的确定性越来越高。与此相反,一开始就购买大量比特币的富裕用户往往会随着时间的推移逐渐抛售他们持有的比特币。随着时间的推移,他们抛售比特币的速度会越来越低,最后至少会持有一小部分初始持有的比特币。有趣的是,用户越富有,其余额比例就越大,他们倾向于抛售的确定性就越高。这项研究为探索比特币用户的行为提供了一个有趣的视角,可能适用于其他金融市场。
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Bitcoin Transaction Behavior Modeling Based on Balance Data
When analyzing Bitcoin users' balance distribution, we observed that it follows a log-normal pattern. Drawing parallels from the successful application of Gibrat's law of proportional growth in explaining city size and word frequency distributions, we tested whether the same principle could account for the log-normal distribution in Bitcoin balances. However, our calculations revealed that the exponent parameters in both the drift and variance terms deviate slightly from one. This suggests that Gibrat's proportional growth rule alone does not fully explain the log-normal distribution observed in Bitcoin users' balances. During our exploration, we discovered an intriguing phenomenon: Bitcoin users tend to fall into two distinct categories based on their behavior, which we refer to as ``poor" and ``wealthy" users. Poor users, who initially purchase only a small amount of Bitcoin, tend to buy more bitcoins first and then sell out all their holdings gradually over time. The certainty of selling all their coins is higher and higher with time. In contrast, wealthy users, who acquire a large amount of Bitcoin from the start, tend to sell off their holdings over time. The speed at which they sell their bitcoins is lower and lower over time and they will hold at least a small part of their initial holdings at last. Interestingly, the wealthier the user, the larger the proportion of their balance and the higher the certainty they tend to sell. This research provided an interesting perspective to explore bitcoin users' behaviors which may apply to other finance markets.
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