Assessing population viability and management strategies for species recovery of the critically endangered Puerto Rican parrot

Recovery of endangered species is challenging and lengthy, especially when it involves reintroduction and dynamic environmental conditions. Because managers often need to decide between many management strategies with uncertain outcomes, periodically assessing progress toward recovery using population viability analysis (PVA) can help guide decision‐making. We developed a PVA for the critically endangered Puerto Rican parrot (Amazona vittata) to evaluate current status and potential future management strategies to reach goals set in the Recovery Plan. Having grown from their nadir of 13 birds in 1976 to 686 in 2021, the recovery effort has made great progress. Using 15 years of data, we built an individual‐based PVA that included interactions between two captive and three wild populations connected via annual releases. If management continues as planned, the wild populations have no to moderate risks of extinction (0–32%) over the next 100 years. However, wild populations remain dependent on releases to sustain growth, and recovery targets for stable population growth and connectivity have not yet been reached. Our analysis suggests that hurricanes are an impediment to reaching recovery targets and impact some wild populations more than others based on geography. Projections with climate‐change‐induced higher hurricane impact resulted in wild populations being less likely to stabilize. We identified demographic rates and associated management strategies that could positively impact wild populations: increasing reproduction (e.g., via increasing artificial nests, improving nest success) and decreasing first‐year mortality (e.g., via targeted predator control). Based on our current understanding of Puerto Rican parrot demographics, species recovery will continue to be management‐dependent unless demographic rates can be altered. As more data are gathered, especially for data‐sparse populations and in the face of environmental change, future iterations of this model can re‐evaluate progress, update management strategies, and provide support for deciding if and when to delist this iconic species.