在气候变化中重新调整亚速尔群岛沿海海洋生物多样性

IF 3.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Journal of Biogeography Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI:10.1111/jbi.15008
Juan David González-Trujillo, Babak Naimi, Jorge Assis, Miguel B. Araújo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的气候变化给亚速尔群岛的生物多样性带来了挑战,其后果仍有待探索。为了揭示气候变化的潜在影响,我们为沿海海洋环境中的物种开发了大量物种分布模型(SDMs),并研究了它们的时空转换和稳定性。亚速尔群岛分类群沿海海洋物种(哺乳动物、鱼类、海龟、海鸟、海藻林和珊瑚)。方法通过 10 种机器学习算法和 5 倍交叉验证重采样程序对 SDMs 进行大集合拟合,每个物种最多可拟合 50 个模型。然后利用这些模型预测不同未来情景下的物种分布。根据预测的物种分布情况,我们评估了在整个建模期间(2030-2100 年)物种分布范围稳定性的变化,并通过考察 10 年内阿尔法多样性和贝塔多样性的变化,评估了物种群落组成的变化。结果我们发现,根据我们的模型假设,到本世纪末,超过 12% 的建模单元可能会失去适宜的气候,而在高碳排放情景下,这一数字会增加到 25%。气候变化避难所是物种分布长期稳定的区域,预计主要位于群岛最北部的沿海地区。预计哺乳动物和鸟类的适宜气候将大量丧失,这可能会导致圣玛丽亚、圣米格尔、皮科和法伊亚尔等岛屿上的物种大量减少。对于鱼类来说,适宜气候的丧失不太明显。主要结论:我们的模型为气候变化如何改变亚速尔群岛海洋沿岸物种的分布提供了见解,为这些重要的北大西洋生态系统的保护和管理工作提供了重要指导。
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Reshuffling of Azorean Coastal Marine Biodiversity Amid Climate Change

Aim

Climate change poses a challenge to the Azores' biodiversity, with consequences that remain unexplored. To shed light on the potential impacts of climate change, we have developed a large ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs) for species found in the coastal marine environments and examined their spatiotemporal turnover and stability.

Location

The Azorean archipelago.

Taxon

Coastal marine species (mammals, fish, turtles, seabirds, kelp forest and corals).

Methods

SDMs were fitted a large ensemble comprising 10 machine learning algorithms and a fivefold cross-validation resampling procedure, thus yielding a maximum number of 50 models fitted per species. These models were then utilised for projecting species distribution under different future scenarios. The projected distributions of the species were employed to assess changes in the stability of their ranges throughout the entire modelled period (2030–2100) and in their community compositions by examining changes in alpha diversity and beta diversity over 10-year periods.

Results

We show that under our model assumptions over 12% of the modelled units could lose suitable climate by the end of the century, with this number increasing up to 25% under a high carbon emissions scenario. Climate change refugia, which are areas of long-term species range stability, are expected to be mainly located in the coastal areas in the northernmost part of the archipelago. A substantial loss of suitable climate is anticipated for mammals and birds, which is likely to trigger a major loss of species on the islands of Santa Maria, São Miguel, Pico and Faial. For fish, the loss of suitable climates is less pronounced. However, climate change is expected to cause a major reshuffling of the pelagic fish assemblage, with important consequences for local fisheries on each island.

Main Conclusions

Our models provide insights into how climate change may alter the distribution of Azorean marine coastal species, offering important guidance for conservation and management efforts in these important North Atlantic ecosystems.

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来源期刊
Journal of Biogeography
Journal of Biogeography 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
7.70
自引率
5.10%
发文量
203
审稿时长
2.2 months
期刊介绍: Papers dealing with all aspects of spatial, ecological and historical biogeography are considered for publication in Journal of Biogeography. The mission of the journal is to contribute to the growth and societal relevance of the discipline of biogeography through its role in the dissemination of biogeographical research.
期刊最新文献
Issue Information Cover Issue Information Cover Species Distribution Models for Mesopelagic Mesozooplankton Community
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