Climatic variability of wave heights in the shelf zone of the North-Eastern part of the Black Sea according field data

Wave parameters and their variability under climate change are important for forecasting in many areas, such as coastal zone management. This study analyzed the variability of key climate indices from August to October over the period 1996–2020. The relationship between these changes and changes in average monthly significant wave heights was assessed based on field measurements taken at a consistent location on the northeastern Black Sea shelf during various years within this period.

The analysis revealed that negative values of NAO, AO, and EA, along with positive values (greater than 1) of EA/WR, are associated with increases in wave heights. The study identified the key periods when joint changes in these climate indices are likely to have the greatest impact on average monthly wave heights: 4 and 7 years for August, 17 and 20 years for September, and 4, 13, and 10 years for October. The discussion emphasizes that identifying the primary regional climate indices and studying their relationship with wave parameters in detail could form the foundation for zoning the Black Sea into quasi-homogeneous zones based on climate variability. This approach could also support the development of simple prognostic models for different parts of the Black Sea, taking into account the non-stationary nature of climate change.