弗吉尼亚州短期气温变化与死亡率之间的关系。

IF 2.9 3区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES PLoS ONE Pub Date : 2024-09-20 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0310545
Melanie M Pane, Robert E Davis
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的目的是确定邻近天数的短期气温变化与死亡率之间的关系。根据机场观测数据计算出弗吉尼亚州北弗吉尼亚、里士满、罗诺克和诺福克邻日最高气温的变化,并将其与每个气象站周围多县地区的总死亡率联系起来。使用分布式滞后非线性模型分析了滞后 28 天的逐日气温变化与死亡率之间的关系,该模型控制了空气质量、时间趋势和其他因素。在四个地点中,有三个地点的气温大幅下降后的几天与死亡风险增加有关,有两个城市的气温上升与死亡风险增加有关。例如,日气温下降 12°C 的相对死亡风险(第 1 百分位数)在罗诺克为 1.74 [0.92, 3.27],在里士满为 1.16 [0.70, 1.92]。短期气温上升的净影响较小,诺福克最高气温上升 12°C(第 99 百分位数)的最大相对风险为 1.03 [0.58, 1.83]。在里士满和罗阿诺克,观察到死亡率增加的滞后效应(最大相对风险从 1.08 到 1.10 不等),与气温大幅下降 15°C 或更高有关,滞后效应持续 5 到 25 天。相比之下,当温度上升超过 10℃(短期变暖)时,弗吉尼亚州北部和诺福克的死亡风险(1.10 至 1.15)会立即大幅增加(滞后 0-3 天)。一般来说,当死亡率峰值滞后一周或更长时间时,连续升温比短期降温对死亡率的影响更为直接。然而,相对于死亡率较高的寒冷(冬季)天气,炎热(夏季)天气后至少 10°C 的降温会降低死亡率。这种死亡率随温度变化而不同的反应表明,平均温度、温度变化和季节之间存在一定的关系。这项研究的结果可能有助于公共卫生官员制定缓解策略,以减少与短期气温变化相关的不利健康风险。
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The association between short-term temperature variability and mortality in Virginia.

The objective of this study is to determine the relationship between short-term temperature variability on neighboring days and mortality. The change in maximum temperature in Northern Virginia, Richmond, Roanoke, and Norfolk, Virginia, on neighboring days was calculated from airport observations and associated with total mortality over a multi-county area surrounding each weather station. The association between day-to-day temperature change and mortality, lagged over a 28-day period, was analyzed using distributed lag non-linear models that controlled for air quality, temporal trends, and other factors. Days following large temperature declines were associated with an increased risk of mortality in three of the four locations, and temperature increases were linked to higher mortality risk in two cities. For example, the relative risk of mortality for a 12°C daily temperature decline (1st percentile) was 1.74 [0.92, 3.27] in Roanoke and 1.16 [0.70, 1.92] in Richmond. The net effect of short-term temperature increases was smaller, with the largest relative risk of 1.03 [0.58, 1.83] for a 12°C increase (99th percentile) in maximum temperature in Norfolk. In Richmond and Roanoke, there was an observed lagged effect of increased mortality (maximum relative risks varying from 1.08 to 1.10) that extended from 5 to 25 days associated with large temperature declines of 15°C or more. In contrast, there was a strong and immediate (lag 0-3 day) increase in the risk of mortality (1.10 to 1.15) in northern Virginia and Norfolk when the temperature increase exceeded 10°C (short-term warming). In general, consecutive day warming had a more immediate mortality impact than short-term cooling, when the peak mortality is lagged by one week or more. However, cooling of at least 10°C after a hot (summer) day reduced mortality relative to comparable cooling following a cold (winter) day, which is associated with high mortality. This differential mortality response as a function of temperature suggests that there is some relationship between average temperature, temperature variability, and season. The findings of this study may be useful to public health officials in developing mitigation strategies to reduce the adverse health risks associated with short-term temperature variability.

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来源期刊
PLoS ONE
PLoS ONE 生物-生物学
CiteScore
6.20
自引率
5.40%
发文量
14242
审稿时长
3.7 months
期刊介绍: PLOS ONE is an international, peer-reviewed, open-access, online publication. PLOS ONE welcomes reports on primary research from any scientific discipline. It provides: * Open-access—freely accessible online, authors retain copyright * Fast publication times * Peer review by expert, practicing researchers * Post-publication tools to indicate quality and impact * Community-based dialogue on articles * Worldwide media coverage
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