COPD treatment ratio: a measure for improving COPD population health.

Objectives: Despite chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) being a leading cause of death in the US, there are few COPD measures in current quality programs. The objective of this study was to assess the validity and applicability of the COPD treatment ratio (CTR) as a surrogate marker of COPD exacerbation risk for use in quality measurement. CTR is defined as the ratio of COPD maintenance medications to all COPD medications (maintenance and rescue).

Study design: This retrospective cohort study used 2016-2019 administrative claims from Optum Clinformatics Data Mart to evaluate CTR values over a 12-month baseline period, with exacerbations measured the following year. Patients 40 years or older with Medicare Advantage or commercial insurance and with a COPD diagnosis were included.

Methods: Logistic regression models were used to examine relationships between CTR values and COPD exacerbations. Prediction model performance was evaluated using C statistics, and receiver operating characteristics were used to determine the optimal cut point for CTR.

Results: Of 132,960 patients included in the analysis, 79.5% were Medicare Advantage beneficiaries, and the mean age was 69.6 years. Higher CTR values were significantly associated with reduced risk of any, moderate, and severe exacerbations in the total population and when stratified by insurance type. CTR performed fairly to moderately well in predicting COPD exacerbations. The optimal cut point for COPD exacerbation prediction was 0.7.

Conclusions: Study results substantiated CTR as a valid measure of COPD exacerbation risk and support the use of CTR in quality improvement to drive evidence-based care for individuals with COPD.