Evaluation and prediction of water-energy-food nexus under land use changes in the Yellow River Basin, China

Scientific understanding of the changes in the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus is crucial for regional development. As the spatial foundation of human activities, land use plays a pivotal role in shaping WEF nexus relations. However, little research has fully explored the impacts of land use changes within the WEF nexus from the human activities perspective. In this study, a novel theoretical framework was developed according to the logic flow “human activities-land use–WEF nexus”. Based on the LUI, the WEF score, and the ICCD between land use changes and WEF, the WEF score of various scenarios was forecasted using the ARIMA model. The findings revealed the various land use structures and LUI among nine provinces, with more intensive land use in lower reaches. During two decades, a discernible increase in both WEF system scores and ICCD was found in YRB. The WEF scores of all provinces had surpassed the threshold of 0.3 for two decades, and Inner Mongolia grew the fastest from 0.223 to 0.524. The ICCD of nine provinces evolved with fluctuations, from an imminent unbalanced or near coordination level in 2000 to primary coordination or moderate coordination level in 2020. The optimal land use scenarios varied across provinces, attributed to factors such as resource and environmental constraints (Qinghai and Sichuan), specialized agriculture or industry (Gansu, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia), differentiated zonal characteristics (Shaanxi and Shanxi), and rapid industrialization and urbanization (Henan and Shandong). To attain sustainable development within the YRB, it is imperative to formulate differentiated land use strategies in each province, and universal strategies should also be established for each land use type.