在日照骤减的情况下,粮食系统的适应和维持贸易可减轻全球饥荒

IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI:10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100807
Morgan Rivers , Michael Hinge , Kevin Rassool , Simon Blouin , Florian U. Jehn , Juan B. García Martínez , Vasco Amaral Grilo , Victor Jaeck , Ross J. Tieman , James Mulhall , Talib E. Butt , David C. Denkenberger
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在大规模核战争、火山爆发或小行星或彗星撞击导致日照骤减的情况下,农业产量将急剧下降。我们利用一个线性优化模型,在有和没有全球粮食贸易的情况下,分析了在平流层注入 150 吨烟尘的核冬天情景。我们研究了失去全球粮食贸易的影响、一些简单的适应措施(如在最寒冷的年份配给和储存多余的粮食)以及快速、大规模部署对当今气候依赖性较低的食物来源(所谓的弹性食物),包括耐寒作物、甲烷单细胞蛋白、木质纤维素糖、温室作物和海藻。在没有全球粮食贸易和不采取适应措施的最坏情况下,模型预测会出现全球饥荒。然而,迅速推广抗灾食品可以缓解许多国家的饥荒。维持全球粮食贸易将进一步减轻当地粮食系统的压力,释放养活全球人口的潜力。然而,准备不足、灾后冲突或经济崩溃将导致结果恶化,阻碍适应。
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Food system adaptation and maintaining trade could mitigate global famine in abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios
After a major nuclear war, volcanic eruption or asteroid or comet impact that causes an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario, agricultural yields would plummet. We analyzed a nuclear winter scenario involving the injection of 150 Tg of soot in the stratosphere using a linear optimization model with and without global food trade. We investigated the effects of loss of global food trade, some simple adaptations like rationing and storage of excess food for the coldest years, and rapid, large-scale deployment of food sources which are less dependent on present day climate (so called resilient foods) including cool tolerant crops, methane single cell protein, lignocellulosic sugar, greenhouse crops, and seaweed. In the worst case of no global food trade and no adaptations, the model predicts a global famine. However, scaling up resilient foods quickly could mitigate this for many countries. Maintaining global food trade would further alleviate pressure on local food systems, unlocking the potential to feed the entire global population. However, insufficient preparation, post-disaster conflict, or economic collapse would worsen outcomes and hinder adaptation.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
20.90
自引率
3.40%
发文量
69
期刊介绍: Global Food Security plays a vital role in addressing food security challenges from local to global levels. To secure food systems, it emphasizes multifaceted actions considering technological, biophysical, institutional, economic, social, and political factors. The goal is to foster food systems that meet nutritional needs, preserve the environment, support livelihoods, tackle climate change, and diminish inequalities. This journal serves as a platform for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners to access and engage with recent, diverse research and perspectives on achieving sustainable food security globally. It aspires to be an internationally recognized resource presenting cutting-edge insights in an accessible manner to a broad audience.
期刊最新文献
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