Morgan Rivers , Michael Hinge , Kevin Rassool , Simon Blouin , Florian U. Jehn , Juan B. García Martínez , Vasco Amaral Grilo , Victor Jaeck , Ross J. Tieman , James Mulhall , Talib E. Butt , David C. Denkenberger
{"title":"在日照骤减的情况下,粮食系统的适应和维持贸易可减轻全球饥荒","authors":"Morgan Rivers , Michael Hinge , Kevin Rassool , Simon Blouin , Florian U. Jehn , Juan B. García Martínez , Vasco Amaral Grilo , Victor Jaeck , Ross J. Tieman , James Mulhall , Talib E. Butt , David C. Denkenberger","doi":"10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100807","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>After a major nuclear war, volcanic eruption or asteroid or comet impact that causes an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario, agricultural yields would plummet. We analyzed a nuclear winter scenario involving the injection of 150 Tg of soot in the stratosphere using a linear optimization model with and without global food trade. We investigated the effects of loss of global food trade, some simple adaptations like rationing and storage of excess food for the coldest years, and rapid, large-scale deployment of food sources which are less dependent on present day climate (so called resilient foods) including cool tolerant crops, methane single cell protein, lignocellulosic sugar, greenhouse crops, and seaweed. In the worst case of no global food trade and no adaptations, the model predicts a global famine. However, scaling up resilient foods quickly could mitigate this for many countries. Maintaining global food trade would further alleviate pressure on local food systems, unlocking the potential to feed the entire global population. However, insufficient preparation, post-disaster conflict, or economic collapse would worsen outcomes and hinder adaptation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48741,"journal":{"name":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","volume":"43 ","pages":"Article 100807"},"PeriodicalIF":9.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Food system adaptation and maintaining trade could mitigate global famine in abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios\",\"authors\":\"Morgan Rivers , Michael Hinge , Kevin Rassool , Simon Blouin , Florian U. Jehn , Juan B. García Martínez , Vasco Amaral Grilo , Victor Jaeck , Ross J. Tieman , James Mulhall , Talib E. Butt , David C. Denkenberger\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100807\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>After a major nuclear war, volcanic eruption or asteroid or comet impact that causes an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario, agricultural yields would plummet. We analyzed a nuclear winter scenario involving the injection of 150 Tg of soot in the stratosphere using a linear optimization model with and without global food trade. We investigated the effects of loss of global food trade, some simple adaptations like rationing and storage of excess food for the coldest years, and rapid, large-scale deployment of food sources which are less dependent on present day climate (so called resilient foods) including cool tolerant crops, methane single cell protein, lignocellulosic sugar, greenhouse crops, and seaweed. In the worst case of no global food trade and no adaptations, the model predicts a global famine. However, scaling up resilient foods quickly could mitigate this for many countries. Maintaining global food trade would further alleviate pressure on local food systems, unlocking the potential to feed the entire global population. However, insufficient preparation, post-disaster conflict, or economic collapse would worsen outcomes and hinder adaptation.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48741,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment\",\"volume\":\"43 \",\"pages\":\"Article 100807\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":9.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-23\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912424000695\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912424000695","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Food system adaptation and maintaining trade could mitigate global famine in abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios
After a major nuclear war, volcanic eruption or asteroid or comet impact that causes an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario, agricultural yields would plummet. We analyzed a nuclear winter scenario involving the injection of 150 Tg of soot in the stratosphere using a linear optimization model with and without global food trade. We investigated the effects of loss of global food trade, some simple adaptations like rationing and storage of excess food for the coldest years, and rapid, large-scale deployment of food sources which are less dependent on present day climate (so called resilient foods) including cool tolerant crops, methane single cell protein, lignocellulosic sugar, greenhouse crops, and seaweed. In the worst case of no global food trade and no adaptations, the model predicts a global famine. However, scaling up resilient foods quickly could mitigate this for many countries. Maintaining global food trade would further alleviate pressure on local food systems, unlocking the potential to feed the entire global population. However, insufficient preparation, post-disaster conflict, or economic collapse would worsen outcomes and hinder adaptation.
期刊介绍:
Global Food Security plays a vital role in addressing food security challenges from local to global levels. To secure food systems, it emphasizes multifaceted actions considering technological, biophysical, institutional, economic, social, and political factors. The goal is to foster food systems that meet nutritional needs, preserve the environment, support livelihoods, tackle climate change, and diminish inequalities. This journal serves as a platform for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners to access and engage with recent, diverse research and perspectives on achieving sustainable food security globally. It aspires to be an internationally recognized resource presenting cutting-edge insights in an accessible manner to a broad audience.