Community resilience to socio-environmental disasters in Itajaí Valley, Brazil

The Itajaí Valley (Brazil) is historically hit by disasters characterized by landslides and floods. Despite some level of preparedness, the changing rainfall regimes which became less predictable and more severe, is exacerbated by uncertainties of climate change challenging the state of resilience in the area. Community perception in disaster risk areas is one of the key components for identifying the state of resilience to disasters. Hence, to better understand the nature of changing resilience, this research aims to identify and compare the state of resilience of communities (SC) in the Itajaí Valley by analyzing risk perception of local communities. A descriptive-evaluative methodology is used through a quantitative survey approach in the at-risk areas in two distinct phases. Data collection in the first phase took place between March and July 2023, a period temporally distant from the last major disaster, which occurred in 2008. The second phase of data collection took place between the floods of October and November 2023. The results of the research indicate that exposure to the October 2023 floods had a substantial impact on the population's perception of risk, in which changes were observed in all the aspects of community resilience analyzed. In this sense, there was a significant increase in resilience during the reorganization phase, strengthening the consensus with studies related to adaptive cycles. The results enable a more precise understanding of vulnerable areas, allowing decision-makers to pinpoint where resources and efforts should be directed with greater accuracy.