Measuring the relationship between territorial exclusion and depopulation – A municipal classification proposal to guide territorial balance

The rural exodus in Europe has triggered population loss and ageing in many regions, exacerbating demographic and socio-economic imbalances. This study employs a comprehensive methodology to address these challenges, introducing a Territorial Exclusion indicator that covers deficiencies in services, economic stagnation, and limited accessibility of municipalities. Using structural equation modeling, we demonstrate how territorial exclusion acts as a fundamental factor driving depopulation. Furthermore, the study identifies homogeneous groups of municipalities based on their level of territorial exclusion, emphasizing the need for differentiated approaches in developing targeted and effective territorial development policies. To illustrate these findings, we focus on the region of Aragon (Spain) as an extreme example, providing valuable insights into the broader implications of territorial exclusion and informing strategies for addressing depopulation challenges in the region and beyond.