“We rather not connect trade to politics, let alone geopolitics” – The changing role of Russia as a landscape pressure for zero-carbon energy transitions

This article aims for conceptual and empirical insights by focusing on a missing aspect in sustainability transitions research: the geopolitical setting as a landscape pressure for energy transitions. It analyses how energy super-power Russia is depicted before and after 2022 as a factor influencing the energy transition of small northern European countries: Estonia, Finland and Norway. The article also provides empirical findings on the impacts of the ongoing war on European energy transitions. We use the ‘landscape’ concept of transition studies to analyse actor perceptions and expectations of this geopolitical landscape shift, via interviewing experts at the energy-security nexus. Landscape is the selection environment for niches and socio-technical regimes, influencing their operational conditions. It contains rapid shocks, e.g., wars and pandemics, and slower geopolitical developments, the effects of which are dependent on the interpretation of actors. The results show that, before 2022, despite all three countries sharing a border with Russia, it was perceived differently as a landscape pressure: a direct security threat in Estonia; both a rather implicit indirect threat and a favoured economic partner in Finland, and; a distanced landscape factor in Norway. Perceptions about Russia became more uniform towards a geopolitical threat after the 2022 landscape shock, resulting also in extraordinary policy measures. The differences between countries show that landscape pressures are partly socially constructed, and, hence, subject to active influence by some actors. For instance, some landscape pressures may be affected by efforts of (de)politicisation or (de)securitisation to reduce or increase the public's focus on them.