根据《2021 年全球疾病负担研究》数据,进一步分析八个高负担国家的结核病情况。

IF 8.1 1区 医学 Infectious Diseases of Poverty Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI:10.1186/s40249-024-01247-8
Hengliang Lv, Longhao Wang, Xueli Zhang, Caixia Dang, Feng Liu, Xin Zhang, Junzhu Bai, Shumeng You, Hui Chen, Wenyi Zhang, Yuanyong Xu
{"title":"根据《2021 年全球疾病负担研究》数据,进一步分析八个高负担国家的结核病情况。","authors":"Hengliang Lv, Longhao Wang, Xueli Zhang, Caixia Dang, Feng Liu, Xin Zhang, Junzhu Bai, Shumeng You, Hui Chen, Wenyi Zhang, Yuanyong Xu","doi":"10.1186/s40249-024-01247-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Backgrounds: </strong>Most significant findings from the Global Tuberculosis (TB) Report 2023 indicate that India, Indonesia, China, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) collectively contribute to approximately two-thirds of global TB cases. This study aims to provide crucial data-driven insights and references to improve TB control measures through a comprehensive analysis of these eight high-burden countries.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The eight high-burden TB countries analyzed in this study include India, Indonesia, China, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and the DRC. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of TB were derived from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021 data. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression. An age-period-cohort model was applied to examine the risk ratios (RR) of TB across diverse age groups, periods, and birth cohorts. A Bayesian age-period-cohort framework was employed to predict the ASIR of TB by 2030.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The study found that the Philippines (average annual percentage change = 3.1%, P < 0.001) exhibited an upward trend from 1990 to 2021. In India, the Philippines, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, the RR of TB incidence exceeded 1 after individuals reached 25 years old. Notably, the RR has shown a consistent upward trend since 2001, peaking during the period of 2017-2021 with an estimated RR of 1.5 (P < 0.001) in the Philippines. Similarly, the highest RR was observed during the period of 2017-2021 reaching 1.1 (P < 0.001) in the DRC. In the Philippines, the markedly increasing RR values for TB have been observed among individuals born after 1997-2001. Projections suggest that the ASIR of TB is expected to follow a continued upward trajectory, with an estimated rate of 392.9 per 100,000 by 2030 in the Philippines; India and Indonesia are projected to achieve less than 20.0% of the target set by the World Health Organization (WHO).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Among the eight high-burden countries, the Philippines, India and Indonesia are diverging from the goals set by the WHO, and the risk of TB in the Philippines and the DRC shows a trend toward affecting younger populations, which suggests that the management strategies for TB patients need to be further strengthened.</p>","PeriodicalId":48820,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Diseases of Poverty","volume":"13 1","pages":"70"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11440896/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Further analysis of tuberculosis in eight high-burden countries based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 data.\",\"authors\":\"Hengliang Lv, Longhao Wang, Xueli Zhang, Caixia Dang, Feng Liu, Xin Zhang, Junzhu Bai, Shumeng You, Hui Chen, Wenyi Zhang, Yuanyong Xu\",\"doi\":\"10.1186/s40249-024-01247-8\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Backgrounds: </strong>Most significant findings from the Global Tuberculosis (TB) Report 2023 indicate that India, Indonesia, China, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) collectively contribute to approximately two-thirds of global TB cases. This study aims to provide crucial data-driven insights and references to improve TB control measures through a comprehensive analysis of these eight high-burden countries.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The eight high-burden TB countries analyzed in this study include India, Indonesia, China, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and the DRC. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of TB were derived from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021 data. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression. An age-period-cohort model was applied to examine the risk ratios (RR) of TB across diverse age groups, periods, and birth cohorts. A Bayesian age-period-cohort framework was employed to predict the ASIR of TB by 2030.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The study found that the Philippines (average annual percentage change = 3.1%, P < 0.001) exhibited an upward trend from 1990 to 2021. In India, the Philippines, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, the RR of TB incidence exceeded 1 after individuals reached 25 years old. Notably, the RR has shown a consistent upward trend since 2001, peaking during the period of 2017-2021 with an estimated RR of 1.5 (P < 0.001) in the Philippines. Similarly, the highest RR was observed during the period of 2017-2021 reaching 1.1 (P < 0.001) in the DRC. In the Philippines, the markedly increasing RR values for TB have been observed among individuals born after 1997-2001. Projections suggest that the ASIR of TB is expected to follow a continued upward trajectory, with an estimated rate of 392.9 per 100,000 by 2030 in the Philippines; India and Indonesia are projected to achieve less than 20.0% of the target set by the World Health Organization (WHO).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Among the eight high-burden countries, the Philippines, India and Indonesia are diverging from the goals set by the WHO, and the risk of TB in the Philippines and the DRC shows a trend toward affecting younger populations, which suggests that the management strategies for TB patients need to be further strengthened.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48820,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Infectious Diseases of Poverty\",\"volume\":\"13 1\",\"pages\":\"70\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":8.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11440896/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Infectious Diseases of Poverty\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-024-01247-8\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Infectious Diseases of Poverty","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-024-01247-8","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

背景:2023 年全球结核病(TB)报告》中最重要的研究结果表明,印度、印度尼西亚、中国、菲律宾、巴基斯坦、尼日利亚、孟加拉国和刚果民主共和国(DRC)合计约占全球结核病病例的三分之二。本研究旨在通过对这八个结核病高负担国家的全面分析,为改进结核病控制措施提供重要的数据驱动见解和参考:本研究分析的八个结核病高负担国家包括印度、印度尼西亚、中国、菲律宾、巴基斯坦、尼日利亚、孟加拉国和刚果民主共和国。结核病的年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)来自《2021 年全球疾病负担研究》的数据。采用 Joinpoint 回归分析了时间趋势。采用年龄-时期-队列模型来研究不同年龄组、时期和出生队列的结核病风险比(RR)。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列框架预测了到 2030 年结核病的 ASIR:研究发现,菲律宾(年均百分比变化 = 3.1%,P在八个结核病高负担国家中,菲律宾、印度和印度尼西亚与世界卫生组织设定的目标存在偏差,菲律宾和刚果民主共和国的结核病风险呈现出影响年轻群体的趋势,这表明需要进一步加强结核病患者的管理策略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Further analysis of tuberculosis in eight high-burden countries based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 data.

Backgrounds: Most significant findings from the Global Tuberculosis (TB) Report 2023 indicate that India, Indonesia, China, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) collectively contribute to approximately two-thirds of global TB cases. This study aims to provide crucial data-driven insights and references to improve TB control measures through a comprehensive analysis of these eight high-burden countries.

Methods: The eight high-burden TB countries analyzed in this study include India, Indonesia, China, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and the DRC. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of TB were derived from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021 data. Temporal trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression. An age-period-cohort model was applied to examine the risk ratios (RR) of TB across diverse age groups, periods, and birth cohorts. A Bayesian age-period-cohort framework was employed to predict the ASIR of TB by 2030.

Results: The study found that the Philippines (average annual percentage change = 3.1%, P < 0.001) exhibited an upward trend from 1990 to 2021. In India, the Philippines, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, the RR of TB incidence exceeded 1 after individuals reached 25 years old. Notably, the RR has shown a consistent upward trend since 2001, peaking during the period of 2017-2021 with an estimated RR of 1.5 (P < 0.001) in the Philippines. Similarly, the highest RR was observed during the period of 2017-2021 reaching 1.1 (P < 0.001) in the DRC. In the Philippines, the markedly increasing RR values for TB have been observed among individuals born after 1997-2001. Projections suggest that the ASIR of TB is expected to follow a continued upward trajectory, with an estimated rate of 392.9 per 100,000 by 2030 in the Philippines; India and Indonesia are projected to achieve less than 20.0% of the target set by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Conclusions: Among the eight high-burden countries, the Philippines, India and Indonesia are diverging from the goals set by the WHO, and the risk of TB in the Philippines and the DRC shows a trend toward affecting younger populations, which suggests that the management strategies for TB patients need to be further strengthened.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Infectious Diseases of Poverty
Infectious Diseases of Poverty INFECTIOUS DISEASES-
自引率
1.20%
发文量
368
期刊介绍: Infectious Diseases of Poverty is an open access, peer-reviewed journal that focuses on addressing essential public health questions related to infectious diseases of poverty. The journal covers a wide range of topics including the biology of pathogens and vectors, diagnosis and detection, treatment and case management, epidemiology and modeling, zoonotic hosts and animal reservoirs, control strategies and implementation, new technologies and application. It also considers the transdisciplinary or multisectoral effects on health systems, ecohealth, environmental management, and innovative technology. The journal aims to identify and assess research and information gaps that hinder progress towards new interventions for public health problems in the developing world. Additionally, it provides a platform for discussing these issues to advance research and evidence building for improved public health interventions in poor settings.
期刊最新文献
Role of social innovations in health in the prevention and control of infectious diseases: a scoping review. Approaching onchocerciasis elimination in Equatorial Guinea: Near zero transmission and public health implication. Global burden associated with rare infectious diseases of poverty in 2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. One-year impact of behavioural interventions on schistosomiasis-related knowledge, attitude and practices of primary schoolchildren in Pemba, Tanzania. Establishing a dominant early larval sex-selection strain in the Asian malaria vector Anopheles stephensi.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1