Trajectory of suicide among Indian children and adolescents: a pooled analysis of national data from 1995 to 2021.

Background: Suicide is a major public health concern in India especially among children and adolescents. The yearly national statistics show a concerning trend of rising suicide deaths in these age groups.

Methods: The present study, taking 26 years of national data from the National Crime Record Bureau during 1995-2021, examined the trend, patterns, means, and modes of children/adolescent suicides in India. We also undertook a time series analysis by using ARIMA (0,2,1) model to forecast the expected suicide rate for the next one decade.

Results: A rising trend of suicide rate among children and adolescents was observed in India over the last 26 years. The forecast indicates a continuance of rising suicide cases for the upcoming decade in India. A substantially different trend of suicide rate was observed among early and late adolescents indicating significantly high vulnerability of late adolescents. Among children /adolescents, the most common causes of suicide were family problems, academic failure, illness, and unemployment. Illness has emerged as one of the leading causes of suicide, with a significant rise over time. Poverty and unemployment were also found as the important contributors with a steadily increasing trend of suicide among children and adolescents facing these problems in recent years.

Conclusion: The study provides important analysis and information on suicide among children/adolescents in India, by providing useful insights for parents, teachers, policymakers, healthcare practitioners, and stakeholders aiming to prevent and control children and adolescent suicide and boost mental health. The study also provides important leads on risk factors with a forecast of suicide trends for the next 10 years.