Assessment of emission reduction effects in China’s economic transformation and sustainable development strategy

As the world’s largest carbon emitter and the second-largest economy, China’s soaring carbon emissions are intricately linked to its historical reliance on GDP-based performance appraisal for local officials. In response, the Chinese government initiated reforms in 2014 to phase out the GDP-centric evaluation system (POGE) in underdeveloped regions, aiming to reduce carbon emissions and foster sustainable development. Notably, China met its Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions target ahead of schedule in 2020. However, research on the impact of the POGE policy on carbon emissions reduction remains scarce. This study addresses this critical gap by using county-level panel data from 2011 to 2020 and applying staggered Difference-in-Differences (DID) and Propensity Score Matching-Difference in Differences (PSM-DID) models to assess the POGE policy’s effects on per capita carbon emissions. Our findings reveal that the POGE policy has significantly lowered per capita carbon emissions by 13.1% to 14.1% in underdeveloped regions, with a marked regional gradient from east to west. The policy has also facilitated a shift in local industrial structure, favoring the primary industry over the secondary, further contributing to emission reduction. Overall, the POGE policy has not only improved the ecological environment but also supported local economic growth in these regions. These insights offer valuable policy implications for policymakers in China and other developing nations in crafting effective emission reduction strategies to achieve UN Sustainable Development Goal 13 (Climate Action) by 2030.