{"title":"用于预测输电和配电系统接口处电力交换的物理信息机器学习","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.epsr.2024.111097","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Power exchanges at Transmission–Distribution interfaces are crucial for both the Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and the Distribution System Operators (DSOs). In the past, simple hypothesis as a constant power factor sufficed for characterizing distribution networks and predicting power flows at Transmission–Distribution interfaces. However, the growing integration of distributed energy resources has led to an increased volatility in both active and reactive power flows, rendering traditional models less effective. This study presents a novel Physics-Informed Machine Learning (PIML) model designed to enhance the prediction of power exchanges at Transmission–Distribution interfaces. A novelty of the model lies in its combination of an Inverse Load Flow formulation, which defines an equivalent model of the distribution network (by calculating equivalent resistance and reactance using load flow equations), with classical data-driven regression techniques. Simulation results conducted on a modified version of the Oberrhein MV network highlight the superiority of the proposed PIML approach in front of full ML based methods, as demonstrated by a statistical indicator and an application-oriented evaluation. In addition, this research adopts the TSO perspective through a 2-step Optimal Power Flow analysis that integrates interface power predictions and enables the calculation of production and deviation costs. This multifaceted approach provides valuable insights into the practical implications of the power prediction accuracy on the TSO decision-making process and underscores the significance of accurate power exchange forecasts in the evolving electricity landscape.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50547,"journal":{"name":"Electric Power Systems Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Physics-informed machine learning for forecasting power exchanges at the interface between transmission and distribution systems\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.epsr.2024.111097\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Power exchanges at Transmission–Distribution interfaces are crucial for both the Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and the Distribution System Operators (DSOs). In the past, simple hypothesis as a constant power factor sufficed for characterizing distribution networks and predicting power flows at Transmission–Distribution interfaces. However, the growing integration of distributed energy resources has led to an increased volatility in both active and reactive power flows, rendering traditional models less effective. This study presents a novel Physics-Informed Machine Learning (PIML) model designed to enhance the prediction of power exchanges at Transmission–Distribution interfaces. A novelty of the model lies in its combination of an Inverse Load Flow formulation, which defines an equivalent model of the distribution network (by calculating equivalent resistance and reactance using load flow equations), with classical data-driven regression techniques. Simulation results conducted on a modified version of the Oberrhein MV network highlight the superiority of the proposed PIML approach in front of full ML based methods, as demonstrated by a statistical indicator and an application-oriented evaluation. In addition, this research adopts the TSO perspective through a 2-step Optimal Power Flow analysis that integrates interface power predictions and enables the calculation of production and deviation costs. This multifaceted approach provides valuable insights into the practical implications of the power prediction accuracy on the TSO decision-making process and underscores the significance of accurate power exchange forecasts in the evolving electricity landscape.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50547,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Electric Power Systems Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Electric Power Systems Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378779624009829\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Electric Power Systems Research","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378779624009829","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
输电-配电接口的电力交换对输电系统运营商(TSO)和配电系统运营商(DSO)都至关重要。过去,恒定功率因数这一简单假设足以描述配电网络的特征并预测输电-配电接口处的功率流。然而,分布式能源资源的日益整合导致有功和无功功率流的波动性增加,使传统模型的有效性大打折扣。本研究提出了一种新颖的物理信息机器学习(PIML)模型,旨在增强对输电-配电接口处电力交换的预测。该模型的新颖之处在于将反负载流公式(通过使用负载流方程计算等效电阻和电抗来定义配电网络的等效模型)与经典的数据驱动回归技术相结合。通过统计指标和以应用为导向的评估,在修改版的上莱茵中压网络上进行的仿真结果表明,建议的 PIML 方法优于基于完全 ML 的方法。此外,本研究还从 TSO 的角度出发,通过两步优化功率流分析,整合了接口功率预测,并实现了生产和偏差成本的计算。这种多方面的方法为电力预测准确性对 TSO 决策过程的实际影响提供了宝贵的见解,并强调了准确的电力交换预测在不断变化的电力环境中的重要性。
Physics-informed machine learning for forecasting power exchanges at the interface between transmission and distribution systems
Power exchanges at Transmission–Distribution interfaces are crucial for both the Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and the Distribution System Operators (DSOs). In the past, simple hypothesis as a constant power factor sufficed for characterizing distribution networks and predicting power flows at Transmission–Distribution interfaces. However, the growing integration of distributed energy resources has led to an increased volatility in both active and reactive power flows, rendering traditional models less effective. This study presents a novel Physics-Informed Machine Learning (PIML) model designed to enhance the prediction of power exchanges at Transmission–Distribution interfaces. A novelty of the model lies in its combination of an Inverse Load Flow formulation, which defines an equivalent model of the distribution network (by calculating equivalent resistance and reactance using load flow equations), with classical data-driven regression techniques. Simulation results conducted on a modified version of the Oberrhein MV network highlight the superiority of the proposed PIML approach in front of full ML based methods, as demonstrated by a statistical indicator and an application-oriented evaluation. In addition, this research adopts the TSO perspective through a 2-step Optimal Power Flow analysis that integrates interface power predictions and enables the calculation of production and deviation costs. This multifaceted approach provides valuable insights into the practical implications of the power prediction accuracy on the TSO decision-making process and underscores the significance of accurate power exchange forecasts in the evolving electricity landscape.
期刊介绍:
Electric Power Systems Research is an international medium for the publication of original papers concerned with the generation, transmission, distribution and utilization of electrical energy. The journal aims at presenting important results of work in this field, whether in the form of applied research, development of new procedures or components, orginal application of existing knowledge or new designapproaches. The scope of Electric Power Systems Research is broad, encompassing all aspects of electric power systems. The following list of topics is not intended to be exhaustive, but rather to indicate topics that fall within the journal purview.
• Generation techniques ranging from advances in conventional electromechanical methods, through nuclear power generation, to renewable energy generation.
• Transmission, spanning the broad area from UHV (ac and dc) to network operation and protection, line routing and design.
• Substation work: equipment design, protection and control systems.
• Distribution techniques, equipment development, and smart grids.
• The utilization area from energy efficiency to distributed load levelling techniques.
• Systems studies including control techniques, planning, optimization methods, stability, security assessment and insulation coordination.