{"title":"What-if:以控制为导向的建筑热动态建模的因果机器学习方法","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124550","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Operational optimization of buildings can improve efficiency, and reduce costs and emissions. This optimization typically relies on a model of the building thermal dynamics, which is used by a predictive controller to obtain optimal schedules for heating, ventilation and air conditioning. This model has historically been constructed by domain experts using physical properties of the building. However, this approach scales poorly as more and more residential and commercial buildings need to be modelled and controlled. As a consequence, researchers and practitioners have turned to data-driven models, trained only on observational data. However, this alternative is no panacea: such models often fail to generalize to truly unseen conditions due to their inability to learn cause–effect relationships - i.e. they are not causal, rather they only learn correlational associations between input and target variables. In this paper, we demonstrate this problem using classical machine learning models trained on data from two different use cases (a simulated RC building and nine real-world Dutch buildings). Our results show that, unlike commonly used data-driven methods, causal machine learning (CML) algorithms trained on debiased data can produce accurate models necessary for control-oriented applications which outperform baseline models by over 40%, besides learning the correct causal associations which we verify using a custom testing environment as well as SHAP feature analysis. These results emphasize the need to move beyond simplistic data-driven methods if control-oriented applications are to be realized in a feasible manner.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":10.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"What-if: A causal machine learning approach to control-oriented modelling for building thermal dynamics\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124550\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Operational optimization of buildings can improve efficiency, and reduce costs and emissions. This optimization typically relies on a model of the building thermal dynamics, which is used by a predictive controller to obtain optimal schedules for heating, ventilation and air conditioning. This model has historically been constructed by domain experts using physical properties of the building. However, this approach scales poorly as more and more residential and commercial buildings need to be modelled and controlled. As a consequence, researchers and practitioners have turned to data-driven models, trained only on observational data. However, this alternative is no panacea: such models often fail to generalize to truly unseen conditions due to their inability to learn cause–effect relationships - i.e. they are not causal, rather they only learn correlational associations between input and target variables. In this paper, we demonstrate this problem using classical machine learning models trained on data from two different use cases (a simulated RC building and nine real-world Dutch buildings). Our results show that, unlike commonly used data-driven methods, causal machine learning (CML) algorithms trained on debiased data can produce accurate models necessary for control-oriented applications which outperform baseline models by over 40%, besides learning the correct causal associations which we verify using a custom testing environment as well as SHAP feature analysis. These results emphasize the need to move beyond simplistic data-driven methods if control-oriented applications are to be realized in a feasible manner.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":246,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Applied Energy\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":10.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Applied Energy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924019330\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENERGY & FUELS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Applied Energy","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924019330","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
What-if: A causal machine learning approach to control-oriented modelling for building thermal dynamics
Operational optimization of buildings can improve efficiency, and reduce costs and emissions. This optimization typically relies on a model of the building thermal dynamics, which is used by a predictive controller to obtain optimal schedules for heating, ventilation and air conditioning. This model has historically been constructed by domain experts using physical properties of the building. However, this approach scales poorly as more and more residential and commercial buildings need to be modelled and controlled. As a consequence, researchers and practitioners have turned to data-driven models, trained only on observational data. However, this alternative is no panacea: such models often fail to generalize to truly unseen conditions due to their inability to learn cause–effect relationships - i.e. they are not causal, rather they only learn correlational associations between input and target variables. In this paper, we demonstrate this problem using classical machine learning models trained on data from two different use cases (a simulated RC building and nine real-world Dutch buildings). Our results show that, unlike commonly used data-driven methods, causal machine learning (CML) algorithms trained on debiased data can produce accurate models necessary for control-oriented applications which outperform baseline models by over 40%, besides learning the correct causal associations which we verify using a custom testing environment as well as SHAP feature analysis. These results emphasize the need to move beyond simplistic data-driven methods if control-oriented applications are to be realized in a feasible manner.
期刊介绍:
Applied Energy serves as a platform for sharing innovations, research, development, and demonstrations in energy conversion, conservation, and sustainable energy systems. The journal covers topics such as optimal energy resource use, environmental pollutant mitigation, and energy process analysis. It welcomes original papers, review articles, technical notes, and letters to the editor. Authors are encouraged to submit manuscripts that bridge the gap between research, development, and implementation. The journal addresses a wide spectrum of topics, including fossil and renewable energy technologies, energy economics, and environmental impacts. Applied Energy also explores modeling and forecasting, conservation strategies, and the social and economic implications of energy policies, including climate change mitigation. It is complemented by the open-access journal Advances in Applied Energy.