Eva Ehrnsten, Christoph Humborg, Erik Gustafsson, Bo G. Gustafsson
{"title":"避免灾难:在没有人为干预减少营养负荷的情况下波罗的海的现状","authors":"Eva Ehrnsten, Christoph Humborg, Erik Gustafsson, Bo G. Gustafsson","doi":"10.1002/lol2.10443","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Excessive nutrient inputs have caused eutrophication of coastal ecosystems worldwide, triggering extensive algal blooms, oxygen‐depletion, and collapse of local fisheries. In the Baltic Sea, inputs of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) have been significantly reduced since the 1980s, but the environmental state shows little to no signs of recovery. However, a simulation with continued high loads from the mid‐1980s demonstrates that while the state has not improved yet, it would be considerably worse today without the load reductions (e.g., 82% larger oxygen‐free bottom areas and 104% and 58% higher wintertime concentrations of inorganic N and P, respectively, in the Baltic Proper). Additional simulations with current nutrient loads continuing into the future indicate that conditions will likely improve in the coming decades. This study underscores the significance of acting on early warning signs of eutrophication, and furthermore how sustained efforts to decrease nutrient loads can mitigate the severity of eutrophication.","PeriodicalId":18128,"journal":{"name":"Limnology and Oceanography Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Disaster avoided: current state of the Baltic Sea without human intervention to reduce nutrient loads\",\"authors\":\"Eva Ehrnsten, Christoph Humborg, Erik Gustafsson, Bo G. Gustafsson\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/lol2.10443\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Excessive nutrient inputs have caused eutrophication of coastal ecosystems worldwide, triggering extensive algal blooms, oxygen‐depletion, and collapse of local fisheries. In the Baltic Sea, inputs of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) have been significantly reduced since the 1980s, but the environmental state shows little to no signs of recovery. However, a simulation with continued high loads from the mid‐1980s demonstrates that while the state has not improved yet, it would be considerably worse today without the load reductions (e.g., 82% larger oxygen‐free bottom areas and 104% and 58% higher wintertime concentrations of inorganic N and P, respectively, in the Baltic Proper). Additional simulations with current nutrient loads continuing into the future indicate that conditions will likely improve in the coming decades. This study underscores the significance of acting on early warning signs of eutrophication, and furthermore how sustained efforts to decrease nutrient loads can mitigate the severity of eutrophication.\",\"PeriodicalId\":18128,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Limnology and Oceanography Letters\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-03\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Limnology and Oceanography Letters\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10443\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"LIMNOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Limnology and Oceanography Letters","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10443","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"LIMNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Disaster avoided: current state of the Baltic Sea without human intervention to reduce nutrient loads
Excessive nutrient inputs have caused eutrophication of coastal ecosystems worldwide, triggering extensive algal blooms, oxygen‐depletion, and collapse of local fisheries. In the Baltic Sea, inputs of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) have been significantly reduced since the 1980s, but the environmental state shows little to no signs of recovery. However, a simulation with continued high loads from the mid‐1980s demonstrates that while the state has not improved yet, it would be considerably worse today without the load reductions (e.g., 82% larger oxygen‐free bottom areas and 104% and 58% higher wintertime concentrations of inorganic N and P, respectively, in the Baltic Proper). Additional simulations with current nutrient loads continuing into the future indicate that conditions will likely improve in the coming decades. This study underscores the significance of acting on early warning signs of eutrophication, and furthermore how sustained efforts to decrease nutrient loads can mitigate the severity of eutrophication.
期刊介绍:
Limnology and Oceanography Letters (LO-Letters) serves as a platform for communicating the latest innovative and trend-setting research in the aquatic sciences. Manuscripts submitted to LO-Letters are expected to present high-impact, cutting-edge results, discoveries, or conceptual developments across all areas of limnology and oceanography, including their integration. Selection criteria for manuscripts include their broad relevance to the field, strong empirical and conceptual foundations, succinct and elegant conclusions, and potential to advance knowledge in aquatic sciences.