The value evaluation of Nomogram prediction model based on CTA imaging features for selecting treatment methods for isolated superior mesenteric artery dissection.

Objective: To evaluate value of Nomogram prediction model based on CTA imaging features for selecting treatment methods for isolated superior mesenteric artery dissection (ISMAD).

Methods: Symptomatic ISMAD patients were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set in a 7:3 ratio. In the training set, relevant risk factors for conservative treatment failure in ISMAD patients were analyzed, and a Nomogram prediction model for treatment outcome of ISMAD was constructed with risk factors. The predictive value of the model was evaluated.

Results: Low true lumen residual ratio (TLRR), long dissection length, and large arterial angle (superior mesenteric artery [SMA]/abdominal aorta [AA]) were identified as independent high-risk factors for conservative treatment failure (P < 0.05). The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) results showed that the area under curve (AUC) of Nomogram prediction model was 0.826 (95% CI: 0.740-0.912), indicating good discrimination. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed good consistency between the predicted curve and the ideal curve of the Nomogram prediction model. The decision curve analysis (DCA) analysis results showed that when probability threshold for the occurrence of conservative treatment failure predicted was 0.05-0.98, patients could obtain more net benefits. Similar results were obtained for the predictive value in the validation set.

Conclusion: Low TLRR, long dissection length, and large arterial angle (SMA/AA) are independent high-risk factors for conservative treatment failure in ISMAD. The Nomogram model constructed with independent high-risk factors has good clinical effectiveness in predicting the failure.