{"title":"基于土地利用视角的山东省碳排放时空演变及驱动因素分析","authors":"Jiahui Wu, Kongqing Li","doi":"10.1186/s12302-024-01000-w","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Land use/cover change is the second major contributor to carbon emissions, following energy emissions. Studying provincial land-use carbon emissions is crucial for achieving the “double carbon” goal. This study selects 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province as the research object. It analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of carbon emissions in Shandong Province based on land-use data and energy consumption. In terms of net carbon emissions, this study utilizes the standard deviation ellipse and kernel density estimation to analyze net carbon emissions change from the municipal and regional perspectives. In terms of carbon ecological carrying capacity, not only the carbon ecological carrying capacity of forest and grassland was considered, but also the carbon ecological carrying capacity of crops in Shandong Province, which is a large grain province. Using the geographic detector to explore the drivers. Research findings indicate that carbon sources and sinks show a clear spatial and temporal distribution pattern, with the center of gravity of net carbon emissions extending to the northeast. Areas with high carbon ecological carrying capacity have high forest coverage, grassland coverage, and crop yields. Regarding driving factors, the urbanization rate, economic aggregate, and technological progress demonstrate significant explanatory power through single and interaction tests, suggesting that these factors are critical drivers of land-use carbon emissions within Shandong Province. Based on the spatiotemporal pattern analysis of land-use carbon emissions in Shandong Province, each city's growth rate and spatial distribution characteristics can be clarified, providing a scientific basis for the local government to formulate regional and differentiated emission-reduction policies. In addition, by exploring the driving factors of land-use carbon emissions in Shandong Province, the influence level of factors on carbon emissions can be revealed to provide references for formulating regional sustainable development strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-024-01000-w.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analysis of spatial and temporal evolution and driving factors of carbon emission in Shandong Province: based on the perspective of land use\",\"authors\":\"Jiahui Wu, Kongqing Li\",\"doi\":\"10.1186/s12302-024-01000-w\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Land use/cover change is the second major contributor to carbon emissions, following energy emissions. Studying provincial land-use carbon emissions is crucial for achieving the “double carbon” goal. This study selects 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province as the research object. It analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of carbon emissions in Shandong Province based on land-use data and energy consumption. In terms of net carbon emissions, this study utilizes the standard deviation ellipse and kernel density estimation to analyze net carbon emissions change from the municipal and regional perspectives. In terms of carbon ecological carrying capacity, not only the carbon ecological carrying capacity of forest and grassland was considered, but also the carbon ecological carrying capacity of crops in Shandong Province, which is a large grain province. Using the geographic detector to explore the drivers. Research findings indicate that carbon sources and sinks show a clear spatial and temporal distribution pattern, with the center of gravity of net carbon emissions extending to the northeast. Areas with high carbon ecological carrying capacity have high forest coverage, grassland coverage, and crop yields. Regarding driving factors, the urbanization rate, economic aggregate, and technological progress demonstrate significant explanatory power through single and interaction tests, suggesting that these factors are critical drivers of land-use carbon emissions within Shandong Province. Based on the spatiotemporal pattern analysis of land-use carbon emissions in Shandong Province, each city's growth rate and spatial distribution characteristics can be clarified, providing a scientific basis for the local government to formulate regional and differentiated emission-reduction policies. In addition, by exploring the driving factors of land-use carbon emissions in Shandong Province, the influence level of factors on carbon emissions can be revealed to provide references for formulating regional sustainable development strategies.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":546,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Environmental Sciences Europe\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-024-01000-w.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Environmental Sciences Europe\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12302-024-01000-w\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmental Sciences Europe","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12302-024-01000-w","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Analysis of spatial and temporal evolution and driving factors of carbon emission in Shandong Province: based on the perspective of land use
Land use/cover change is the second major contributor to carbon emissions, following energy emissions. Studying provincial land-use carbon emissions is crucial for achieving the “double carbon” goal. This study selects 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province as the research object. It analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of carbon emissions in Shandong Province based on land-use data and energy consumption. In terms of net carbon emissions, this study utilizes the standard deviation ellipse and kernel density estimation to analyze net carbon emissions change from the municipal and regional perspectives. In terms of carbon ecological carrying capacity, not only the carbon ecological carrying capacity of forest and grassland was considered, but also the carbon ecological carrying capacity of crops in Shandong Province, which is a large grain province. Using the geographic detector to explore the drivers. Research findings indicate that carbon sources and sinks show a clear spatial and temporal distribution pattern, with the center of gravity of net carbon emissions extending to the northeast. Areas with high carbon ecological carrying capacity have high forest coverage, grassland coverage, and crop yields. Regarding driving factors, the urbanization rate, economic aggregate, and technological progress demonstrate significant explanatory power through single and interaction tests, suggesting that these factors are critical drivers of land-use carbon emissions within Shandong Province. Based on the spatiotemporal pattern analysis of land-use carbon emissions in Shandong Province, each city's growth rate and spatial distribution characteristics can be clarified, providing a scientific basis for the local government to formulate regional and differentiated emission-reduction policies. In addition, by exploring the driving factors of land-use carbon emissions in Shandong Province, the influence level of factors on carbon emissions can be revealed to provide references for formulating regional sustainable development strategies.
期刊介绍:
ESEU is an international journal, focusing primarily on Europe, with a broad scope covering all aspects of environmental sciences, including the main topic regulation.
ESEU will discuss the entanglement between environmental sciences and regulation because, in recent years, there have been misunderstandings and even disagreement between stakeholders in these two areas. ESEU will help to improve the comprehension of issues between environmental sciences and regulation.
ESEU will be an outlet from the German-speaking (DACH) countries to Europe and an inlet from Europe to the DACH countries regarding environmental sciences and regulation.
Moreover, ESEU will facilitate the exchange of ideas and interaction between Europe and the DACH countries regarding environmental regulatory issues.
Although Europe is at the center of ESEU, the journal will not exclude the rest of the world, because regulatory issues pertaining to environmental sciences can be fully seen only from a global perspective.