A new college campus and crime: Focusing on crime opportunity and gentrification in downtown Orlando, Florida

Purpose

The current study assesses the potential crime-related impact of the University of Central Florida building a new college campus (UCF-Downtown) as part of a larger plan to revitalize the traditionally disadvantaged downtown Orlando, FL area.

Methods

Orlando Police Department crime incident data were used to track homicide, robbery, assault, burglary, motor vehicle theft, larceny, and drug crime, and information about census block group gentrification related conditions were sourced from the American Community Survey. Weekly time-series analyses using data from January 2010 through December 2020 were conducted, and a spatial panel regression model using yearly data (2013–2019) included a gentrification measure to predict crime outcomes.

Results

Models detected a slight, and temporary, upward trend in assault and drug crime in the area within a 1-mile radius of UCF-Downtown during its construction. There was also some evidence of an increase in burglaries in the UCF-Downtown campus area during the construction period, with all other analyses indicating there was no change in crime related to the new campus or gentrification.

Conclusions

There was no widespread association between improvements made in downtown Orlando and crime, which suggests building the new campus was limited to temporary increases in assault, drug violations, and burglary during construction. Findings provide little support for the ability of a community reinvestment initiative in the form of a new college campus to reduce crime in the short term, and there may be temporary increases in crime opportunities during the construction of a new campus.