Future invasion risk assessment of the peacock bass in Neotropical ecoregions: A conceptual and testable model

Protecting freshwater biodiversity from non-native invasive species and their impacts is crucial for minimising both regional and global deterioration of ecosystem services. The yellow peacock bass Cichla ocellaris, a predatory freshwater fish endemic to the Amazon region, has been translocated within several Neotropical ecoregions, exhibiting harmful effects on biodiversity. In order to facilitate the prioritization of management efforts, which are essential for defining conservation actions in extensive and diverse areas, we propose a risk assessment index that integrates multiple ecological and environmental variables within a comprehensive framework, here applied for C. ocellaris. By considering fish species richness, occurrence frequency, and climate suitability, our index provides a more nuanced understanding of invasion risks. Within regions categorized as high and very high risk, where ecological impacts of C. ocellaris have been extensively documented (e.g., the Southern and North-East Brazilian regions, as well as Central American and Caribbean ecoregions), numerous environments are increasingly conducive to the establishment of this invasive species, exacerbated by a surge in dam constructions. Our analysis projects a significant increase in suitable habitats by 5% to 6.5%, with Southern and Northeastern Brazil and Central America identified as critical zones. Thus, our reproducible risk assessment framework, which considers freshwater ecoregions as conservation units, not only directs effective resource allocation for control measures but also enhances our ability to predict and mitigate the ecological impacts of non-native species introductions, providing a valuable tool for both policymakers and conservationists.