Probabilistic crop type mapping for ex-ante modelling and spatial disaggregation

Agricultural land use and management fundamentally impacts the condition of natural resources like waterbodies, soils, and biodiversity. Modelling the anthropogenic effects on those resources over time requires detailed knowledge of the temporal and spatial distribution of crops. However, currently available crop type maps for Europe either lack the required spatial resolution or the temporal and spatial coverage. We develop and apply a probabilistic, spatially explicit crop type mapping approach that is suitable for ex-post and ex-ante modelling. The approach allows to quantify epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty related to estimated crop shares by providing an ensemble of maps. We implement the method for the EU-28 for the years 2010 – 2020, distinguishing between 28 different crop types at 1 km resolution. Based on a model of the data generating process that conceptually links field-, grid cell- and region-level crop acreages, our approach considers soil, climate, and topography information, as well as administrative data. The validation with ground-truthing data for France indicates that the generated crop type maps are plausible. The provided uncertainty intervals capture differences in uncertainty across space and time and correctly identify grid cells and crops where estimations are less precise. The generated maps constitute a unique data product of high practical value, e.g., for agri-environmental modelling applications. We see additional potential in using the approach to disaggregate the regional or national predictions of socio-economic ex-ante prediction models.