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A conceptual architecture for AI-assisted Digital Twins in natural resource management 自然资源管理中人工智能辅助数字孪生的概念架构
IF 7.3 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2026.103635
Félix Iglesias , Frédéric Ros , Lynh Hoang Vy Thuy , Laurence Gourcy , Jean-Sébastien Moquet , Véronique Daële , Sébastien Dupraz
The management of natural resources is increasingly critical and challenging due to complex interactions among environmental, industrial, and societal processes. Traditional approaches often fail to integrate heterogeneous data, limiting predictive and decision-support capabilities. This study presents a conceptual architecture for an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-assisted Digital Twin (DT) of the Centre-Val de Loire region, designed to unify time-dependent multi-source data. Based on the ENVRI Reference Model, it covers Science, Information, Computational, Engineering, and Technology layers, defining standardized data exchange, communication protocols, and prototype functionalities. A proof of concept FIWARE implementation supports ingestion, monitoring and analytical services for piezometric and meteorological data, exemplified through groundwater dynamics in the Beauce aquifer. It integrates daily observations from 53 piezometric stations over more than five years, managing approximately 2.8 million records in a containerized environment.
Results show that the proposed DT architecture can enhance sustainability-oriented decision making, integrating heterogeneous data and predictive analyses while enabling collaboration across scientific and technical domains. Its modular design offers a replicable template for future AI-assisted environmental DTs, scalable to larger regions. Hence, this work illustrates how DTs can improve environmental monitoring and understanding, providing a pathway toward resilient, data-driven management of natural resources.
由于环境、工业和社会过程之间复杂的相互作用,自然资源的管理越来越重要和具有挑战性。传统方法往往不能集成异构数据,限制了预测和决策支持能力。本研究提出了中卢瓦尔河谷地区人工智能(AI)辅助数字孪生(DT)的概念架构,旨在统一依赖时间的多源数据。基于ENVRI参考模型,它涵盖了科学、信息、计算、工程和技术层,定义了标准化的数据交换、通信协议和原型功能。FIWARE的概念验证支持气压测量和气象数据的采集、监测和分析服务,例如Beauce含水层的地下水动态。它整合了53个测压站5年多来的日常观测数据,在集装箱环境中管理了大约280万条记录。结果表明,所提出的DT架构可以增强面向可持续性的决策,集成异构数据和预测分析,同时实现跨科学和技术领域的协作。它的模块化设计为未来人工智能辅助的环境DTs提供了可复制的模板,可扩展到更大的区域。因此,这项工作说明了DTs如何改善环境监测和理解,为有弹性的、数据驱动的自然资源管理提供了一条途径。
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引用次数: 0
Linking water quality assessment to source apportionment with machine learning-assisted WQI, PMF, and SOM: A case study of the Jinma River basin 利用机器学习辅助的WQI、PMF和SOM将水质评价与水源分配联系起来:以金马河流域为例
IF 7.3 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2026.103625
Qiqi Ding , Haojun Xi , Pinjian Li , Hongzhe Fang , Yibin Yuan , Tianhong Li
Rapid urbanisation intensifies multiple pollution pressures on river ecosystems, generating heterogeneous and nonlinear spatiotemporal water quality dynamics that challenge conventional evaluation methods. Although machine-learning (ML) models are increasingly used for water-quality assessment and prediction, most applications remain evaluation-centric and rarely link their outputs to receptor-based source apportionment or explicit spatial zoning, which limits interpretability and management relevance. Here, we proposed an integrated framework that couples ML-assisted water quality index (WQI) optimisation with receptor modelling and unsupervised spatial clustering. Using monthly observations of ten water quality indicators from 19 sites in the Jinma River Basin (2018–2022), we trained an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model to derive optimised weights of water quality indicators for WQI aggregation. We then applied positive matrix factorisation (PMF) to resolve latent source factors and quantify their contributions, and used self-organising maps (SOM) to cluster monitoring sites into spatially coherent zones based on both WQI status and source composition. Four dominant contributors to the basin water pollution were identified: seasonal hydrological influences (28.16%), domestic sewage (27.36%), agricultural runoff (27.30%) and industrial emissions (17.18%). Integrating the XGBoost-optimised WQI, PMF-resolved source contributions, and SOM clusters delineated three functional management zones, specifically, forested headwaters with high WQI and minimal anthropogenic influence, midstream transition reaches dominated by nutrient-enriched agricultural runoff, and urban downstream corridors affected by combined industrial and domestic inputs. This modular, code-driven workflow translates routine multi-indicator monitoring data into management outputs and can be retrained for other river basins facing complex pollution regimes.
快速城市化加剧了河流生态系统的多重污染压力,产生了异质性和非线性的时空水质动态,对传统的评价方法提出了挑战。尽管机器学习(ML)模型越来越多地用于水质评估和预测,但大多数应用仍然以评估为中心,很少将其输出与基于受体的源分配或明确的空间分区联系起来,这限制了可解释性和管理相关性。在这里,我们提出了一个集成框架,将ml辅助的水质指数(WQI)优化与受体建模和无监督空间聚类结合起来。利用2018-2022年金马河流域19个站点的10个水质指标的月度观测数据,我们训练了一个极端梯度增强(XGBoost)模型,以获得WQI聚集的水质指标的优化权重。然后,我们应用正矩阵分解(PMF)来解决潜在的源因素并量化它们的贡献,并使用自组织地图(SOM)根据WQI状态和源组成将监测点聚类到空间上一致的区域。确定了流域水污染的4个主要影响因素:季节水文影响(28.16%)、生活污水影响(27.36%)、农业径流影响(27.30%)和工业排放影响(17.18%)。综合xgboost优化的WQI、pmf解决的源贡献和SOM集群,划定了三个功能管理区域,即WQI高且人为影响最小的森林上游,以富含营养的农业径流为主的中游过渡区,以及受工业和家庭联合投入影响的城市下游走廊。这种模块化、代码驱动的工作流程可将常规的多指标监测数据转化为管理输出,并可用于面临复杂污染状况的其他流域。
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引用次数: 0
Functional trait-based multi-objective optimisation of plant communities for ecological restoration under climate change 基于功能性状的气候变化下植物群落生态恢复多目标优化
IF 7.3 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2026.103623
Kristina Micalizzi, Danilo Lombardi, Giulia Bardino, Marcello Vitale
Planning resilient plant communities for ecological restoration under climate change requires tools that integrate functional trait data with explicit climatic constraints. This study presents a multi-objective optimisation framework that identifies species assemblages balancing hydraulic safety (drought resistance) with functional diversity. We apply this approach to a Mediterranean forest system using three key traits, xylem vulnerability (P50), specific leaf area (SLA), and leaf dry matter content (LDMC), to represent species' physiological performance and resource-use strategies. Climatic filtering is included by deriving community-weighted P50 targets from the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), classified into drought categories. We report two representative scenarios—Near Normal (–0.99 < SPEI<0.99) and Extra Dry (SPEI<-2.0)—thereby aligning species selection with scenario-specific drought conditions. Functional diversity is quantified using Rao's quadratic entropy, which captures trait dissimilarity across communities. Using the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), the model generates Pareto fronts describing the trade-offs between hydraulic alignment and functional divergence. Across climatic scenarios, the increasing drought severity progressively constrains the solution space and promotes the selection of moderately drought-tolerant and functionally distinct species, shifting community-weighted P50 towards more negative values. In the Near Normal scenario (target P50 ≈ −2.0 MPa), the Pareto front spans P50 ≈ −4.0 to −2.0 MPa and Rao's Q ≈ 0.36–5.3. In contrast, in the Extra Dry scenario (target P50 ≈ −3.8 MPa), P50 narrows to ≈ −4.3 to −3.8 MPa while diversity remains high (Rao's Q ≈ 5.0–5.4). Kernel density estimation and pairwise overlap analyses across 500 optimisation runs demonstrate a strong convergence, particularly under extreme drought (in the Extra Dry scenario, 80.5% of solutions fall within the top 5% kernel-density region). Compositional similarity to field communities, measured using Bray-Curtis' dissimilarity, corroborates this pattern, with a lower median dissimilarity under Extra Dry than Near Normal (median BC = 0.365 vs 0.478). This framework provides a robust, flexible, and scalable method for trait-based restoration planning. By explicitly modelling trade-offs and uncertainty, it enhances the ecological relevance and reproducibility of species selection under future climate scenarios, offering practical support for data-informed restoration strategies.
在气候变化条件下规划弹性植物群落的生态恢复需要将功能性状数据与明确的气候约束相结合的工具。本研究提出了一个多目标优化框架,确定了平衡水力安全(抗旱性)和功能多样性的物种组合。我们将该方法应用于地中海森林系统,利用木质部脆弱性(P50)、比叶面积(SLA)和叶片干物质含量(LDMC)三个关键性状来代表物种的生理性能和资源利用策略。气候过滤包括从标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)中获得社区加权P50目标,并将其划分为干旱类别。我们报告了两个具有代表性的情景——接近正常(-0.99 < SPEI<0.99)和极度干旱(SPEI<-2.0)——从而使物种选择与特定情景的干旱条件保持一致。功能多样性是用Rao的二次熵来量化的,它捕获了群落间的特征差异。使用非支配排序遗传算法II (NSGA-II),该模型生成帕累托前沿描述液压对齐和功能分歧之间的权衡。在不同的气候情景中,干旱严重程度的增加逐渐限制了解决方案空间,并促进了适度耐旱和功能独特的物种的选择,使群落加权P50向负值转移。在接近正常(目标P50≈−2.0 MPa)情况下,Pareto锋的范围为P50≈−4.0 ~−2.0 MPa, Rao’s Q≈0.36 ~ 5.3。相比之下,在Extra Dry情景下(目标P50≈−3.8 MPa), P50缩小至≈−4.3 ~−3.8 MPa,多样性保持较高(Rao’s Q≈5.0 ~ 5.4)。在500次优化运行中,核密度估计和成对重叠分析显示了很强的收敛性,特别是在极端干旱的情况下(在额外干旱的情况下,80.5%的解决方案落在核密度前5%的区域内)。使用Bray-Curtis不相似度测量的与野外群落的成分相似性证实了这一模式,在极度干燥条件下的中位数不相似度低于接近正常条件(中位数BC = 0.365 vs 0.478)。该框架为基于特征的恢复规划提供了一个健壮、灵活和可扩展的方法。通过明确地模拟权衡和不确定性,增强了物种选择在未来气候情景下的生态相关性和可重复性,为数据知情的恢复策略提供了实际支持。
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引用次数: 0
Remotely sensed phenology reveals environmental and management controls on coastal wetland plant communities 遥感物候揭示了沿海湿地植物群落的环境和管理控制
IF 7.3 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2026.103610
Javier Lopatin , Rocío Araya-López , Iryna Dronova
Plant phenology is often used as an indicator of ecological processes and responses to changing environmental conditions. Remote sensing enables phenological monitoring across space and time, yet separating vegetation composition or environmental drivers remains challenging in heterogeneous tidal marshes. We analyzed Sentinel-2 EVI time series to derive phenological metrics, grouped pixels into phenological types via clustering, and linked these to vegetation composition and environmental variation in Suisun Marsh, California. Using phenology metrics alone, a PLS-DA classifier achieved an overall accuracy of 0.69 (per-class balanced accuracy of 0.50–0.81), demonstrating that phenology captures meaningful community patterns. However, transition zones exhibited a complex interplay among vegetation, phenology, elevation, and hydrology: mean mixing rates ranged from 1 to 45%, with class-specific error structures (sensitivity = 0–0.80), indicating limited separability where inundation and salinity covary with phenology. The variation in the timing and magnitude of greenness, alongside the differing proportions of vegetation types across phenological types, suggests that these interacting drivers jointly shape seasonal vegetation cycles. Core phenology metrics (start, peak, end of season) effectively distinguished wetland communities with similar aboveground function and aided delineation of wetland–upland transitions. Yet, despite ecological differences, several vegetation types expressed similar phenological behavior, likely due to shared hydrologic and microclimatic regimes and, potentially, spectral mixing at moderate spatial resolution. We provide a comprehensive work that combines management and vegetation classes to disentangle the complex interplay between wetland communities and remotely sensed phenology predictions.
植物物候常被用作生态过程和对变化的环境条件的反应的指标。遥感可以实现跨空间和时间的物候监测,但在异质潮汐沼泽中分离植被组成或环境驱动因素仍然具有挑战性。我们分析了Sentinel-2 EVI时间序列,得出物候指标,通过聚类将像元划分为物候类型,并将这些物候类型与加利福尼亚suissun Marsh的植被组成和环境变化联系起来。仅使用物候指标,PLS-DA分类器的总体精度为0.69(每类平衡精度为0.50-0.81),表明物候捕获了有意义的群落模式。然而,过渡带在植被、物候、海拔和水文之间表现出复杂的相互作用:平均混合率在1 - 45%之间,具有特定类别的误差结构(灵敏度= 0-0.80),表明洪水和盐度随物候变化的可分离性有限。绿化时间和大小的变化,以及不同物候类型中植被类型的不同比例,表明这些相互作用的驱动因素共同塑造了季节性植被周期。核心物候指标(初、峰、季末)能有效区分具有相似地上功能的湿地群落,并有助于湿地-高地过渡的描绘。然而,尽管存在生态差异,但几种植被类型表现出相似的物候行为,这可能是由于共享的水文和小气候制度,以及在中等空间分辨率下可能存在的光谱混合。我们提供了一项综合工作,将管理和植被分类结合起来,以解开湿地群落与遥感物候预测之间复杂的相互作用。
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引用次数: 0
Orchard plantation mapping using remote sensing phenological feature fusion and interpretable ML algorithms in Hunan Province, China 基于遥感物候特征融合和可解释ML算法的湖南省果园人工林制图
IF 7.3 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2026.103628
Ying Liu , Sihan Wang , Zhaohua Liu , Dongmei Lyu , Sijia Li , Bingxue Zhu , Ge Liu , Kaishan Song
Orchard plantations play a crucial role in the rural economy of southern China, making accurate orchard surveys essential for effective management and resource allocation. Owing to the distinct seasonal growth patterns of orchards, extracting phenological features from multi-temporal remote sensing data has become a primary approach for obtaining orchard information. However, the subtropical monsoon climate of southern China brings frequent cloud cover and rainfall. This poses major challenges to constructing continuous, high-resolution optical remote sensing datasets. To overcome these limitations, this study integrates high-temporal-resolution MODIS data with medium-spatial-resolution Landsat imagery to generate monthly composite images that capture key stages of orchard growth. Based on more than 9000 sampling sites across the province, phenological information was extracted from three conventional features, including spectral reflectance, vegetation indices, and texture features, to build multiple machine learning classification models for high-precision orchard mapping. The results demonstrate that the proposed multi-feature fusion framework yields a substantial accuracy gain of up to 17 percentage points compared to traditional methods. While the baseline method relying solely on single-phase spectral features achieved 72.2% accuracy, the optimal combination of spectral, texture, and phenological features using the LightGBM model reached an accuracy of 89.2% (F1-score: 88.6%).Furthermore, SHAP analysis enhanced model interpretability by revealing the key factors influencing the decision-making process. The results indicate that orchards in Hunan Province are primarily distributed in hilly regions, where large- and small-scale orchards coexist, with Huaihua and Yongzhou containing the largest orchard areas. From 1995 to 2022, the province's orchard area expanded significantly, growing from approximately 45,000 ha to nearly 140,000 ha, which represents an increase of more than 200%. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of spatiotemporal data fusion in mitigating cloud-related challenges in subtropical regions and underscores the novel role of texture features in capturing key phenological information. It provides a reliable framework for large-scale orchard mapping and supports protective land utilization strategies and sustainable agricultural development in the region.
果园种植在中国南方农村经济中起着至关重要的作用,准确的果园调查对有效的管理和资源配置至关重要。由于果园具有明显的季节性生长模式,从多时相遥感数据中提取物候特征已成为获取果园信息的主要方法。然而,中国南方的亚热带季风气候带来了频繁的云量和降雨。这对构建连续、高分辨率光学遥感数据集提出了重大挑战。为了克服这些限制,本研究将高时间分辨率MODIS数据与中空间分辨率Landsat图像整合在一起,生成捕获果园生长关键阶段的月度合成图像。基于全省9000多个采样点,从光谱反射率、植被指数和纹理特征3个常规特征中提取物候信息,构建多机器学习分类模型,实现高精度果园制图。结果表明,与传统方法相比,所提出的多特征融合框架的精度提高了17个百分点。仅依赖单相光谱特征的基线方法准确率为72.2%,而使用LightGBM模型的光谱、纹理和物候特征的最佳组合准确率为89.2% (f1得分为88.6%)。此外,SHAP分析通过揭示影响决策过程的关键因素,增强了模型的可解释性。结果表明:湖南省果园主要分布在丘陵地带,大小果园并存,其中以怀化和永州果园面积最大;从1995年到2022年,该省的果园面积大幅扩大,从约45,000公顷增加到近14万公顷,增长了200%以上。该研究证明了时空数据融合在缓解亚热带地区云相关挑战方面的有效性,并强调了纹理特征在捕获关键物候信息方面的新作用。它为大规模果园制图提供了可靠的框架,为该地区的保护性土地利用战略和农业可持续发展提供了支持。
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引用次数: 0
A2ANet: Real-time detection of floating marine debris using atrous convolution and channel attention A2ANet:利用亚光卷积和航道关注实时检测海洋浮物
IF 7.3 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2026.103620
Badiu Badams , Usman Ullah Sheikh , Norhaliza Abdul Wahab , Syed A.R. Abu Bakar , Muhammad I. Masud , Mohammed Khouj , Urooj Waheed , Zeeshan Ahmad Arfeen , Kam Meng Goh
Floating marine debris such as plastics, cans, and discarded packaging has become one of the most persistent threats to aquatic ecosystems and coastal sustainability. Detecting and tracking this debris in real time is vital for protecting biodiversity and guiding cleanup and policy actions. In this study, we introduce A2ANet, a lightweight deep learning framework that combines multi-scale atrous convolutions and Enhanced Channel Attention (ECA) to detect small, submerged, and visually ambiguous debris under challenging aquatic conditions. These mechanisms-expanding the receptive field and highlighting salient cues-reduce errors from reflections, glare, and clutter in aquatic scenes.
A2ANet was evaluated on two datasets: a newly developed six-class dataset (D_six) representing real-world river conditions, and the publicly available FloW-Img benchmark. The model achieved [email protected] of 0.841 and 0.892 on D_six and FloW-Img datasets, respectively, with inference time as low as 39 ms/image. Beyond detection performance, by enabling automated and frequent monitoring, A2ANet provides actionable insights for mapping pollution, tracking trends, and supporting ecosystem management. The framework offers a practical pathway toward intelligent aquatic observation systems aligned with Sustainable Development Goal 14: Life Below Water.
All code and datasets are openly available (see Data Availability).
漂浮的海洋垃圾,如塑料、易拉罐和废弃包装,已成为水生生态系统和沿海可持续性的最持久威胁之一。实时检测和跟踪这些碎片对于保护生物多样性和指导清理和政策行动至关重要。在这项研究中,我们介绍了A2ANet,这是一个轻量级的深度学习框架,结合了多尺度亚图卷积和增强通道注意(ECA),可以在具有挑战性的水中条件下检测小的、淹没的和视觉上模糊的碎片。这些机制——扩大接受域和突出突出的线索——减少了水中场景中反射、眩光和杂乱造成的错误。A2ANet在两个数据集上进行了评估:一个是新开发的代表真实河流状况的六类数据集(D_six),另一个是公开可用的FloW-Img基准。该模型在d_6和FloW-Img数据集上分别实现了[email protected] 0.841和0.892,推理时间低至39 ms/image。除了检测性能之外,通过实现自动化和频繁的监测,A2ANet还为绘制污染地图、跟踪趋势和支持生态系统管理提供了可操作的见解。该框架为实现符合可持续发展目标14:水下生命的智能水生观测系统提供了一条切实可行的途径。所有代码和数据集都是公开可用的(参见数据可用性)。
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引用次数: 0
Laboratory-based hyperspectral reflectance analysis for phytoplankton species identification 基于实验室的浮游植物物种鉴定的高光谱反射分析
IF 7.3 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2026.103626
R. Bentivogli , L. Pezzolesi , N. Caputo , B. Casarotto , S. Silvestri
Monitoring phytoplankton communities is essential for assessing ecosystem health and detecting harmful algal blooms (HABs). Hyperspectral imaging has emerged as a promising tool to discriminate among microalgal species based on their unique reflectance signatures. This study presents a laboratory spectral analysis of five phytoplankton species, including bloom-forming and toxin-producing taxa common in coastal waters. Reflectance spectra were measured at multiple cell concentrations and analyzed using two normalization approaches, second- and fourth-derivative transformations, and dimensionality reduction techniques including principal component analysis (PCA) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA).
Our results demonstrate that specific spectral features, particularly in the 470–500 nm and 620–680 nm ranges, enable species-level discrimination. PCA and LDA effectively enhanced separability by reducing spectral redundancy and emphasizing class features. We further applied linear spectral unmixing (LSU) to estimate fractional species abundances in synthetic mixtures. LSU performed well in simple mixtures but revealed limitations in complex communities, where nonlinear effects and spectral similarity reduced accuracy.
Beyond classification, LSU enables quantitative assessment of species contributions, providing a valuable complement to PCA and LDA for ecological interpretation and bloom dynamics investigation. This integrated approach lays the foundation for future development of operational tools that combine spectral unmixing and machine learning for automated HAB detection. The combined use of hyperspectral reflectance data and computational methods supports scalable, real-time monitoring of phytoplankton diversity and abundance, with strong potential for deployment in early-warning systems and coastal observatories.
监测浮游植物群落对评估生态系统健康和发现有害藻华(HABs)至关重要。基于微藻独特的反射率特征,高光谱成像已经成为一种有前途的工具来区分微藻物种。本文介绍了五种浮游植物的实验室光谱分析,包括在沿海水域常见的开花和产生毒素的分类群。在多种细胞浓度下测量反射光谱,并使用两种归一化方法、二阶导数和四阶导数变换以及主成分分析(PCA)和线性判别分析(LDA)等降维技术进行分析。我们的研究结果表明,特定的光谱特征,特别是在470-500 nm和620-680 nm范围内,可以实现物种水平的区分。PCA和LDA通过减少谱冗余和强调类特征,有效地增强了可分性。我们进一步应用线性光谱分解(LSU)来估计合成混合物中的分数物种丰度。LSU在简单混合物中表现良好,但在复杂群落中显示出局限性,其中非线性效应和光谱相似性降低了精度。除了分类之外,LSU还可以定量评估物种贡献,为PCA和LDA的生态解释和花华动态调查提供了有价值的补充。这种集成方法为未来开发将光谱分解和机器学习相结合的操作工具奠定了基础,以实现自动化HAB检测。结合使用高光谱反射数据和计算方法,支持对浮游植物多样性和丰度进行可扩展的实时监测,具有在预警系统和沿海观测站部署的强大潜力。
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引用次数: 0
A comparative study of ensemble and non-ensemble machine learning methods for predicting river pollution index 集成与非集成机器学习方法在河流污染指数预测中的比较研究
IF 7.3 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2026.103617
Luisa S.R. Nogueira , Mariana A.S. de Carvalho , Berilo de O. Santos , Roland Yonaba , Apoorva Bamal , Md Galal Uddin , Matteo Bodini , Leonardo Goliatt
Accurate prediction of river water quality is fundamental to environmental sustainability and public health, particularly amid increasing freshwater scarcity. This study develops a robust Machine Learning (ML) framework to forecast the River Pollution Index (RPI) using a comprehensive 36-year national dataset from Taiwan’s Environmental Protection Administration, covering over 500 monitoring stations. We conducted a systematic comparison of ensemble methods (CatBoost, XGBoost, NGBoost) and non-ensemble benchmarks (SVM, ElasticNet, and 1D CNN). Hyperparameters were optimized via Bayesian optimization, and statistical significance was ensured by evaluating model stability using a suite of complementary indicators (RMSE, MAE, R2, A10 index) across 30 independent experimental runs. The results demonstrated the consistent superiority of ensemble models over non-ensemble counterparts. Among them, CatBoost achieved the highest accuracy and stability (RMSE 0.85, MAE 0.61, R2 = 0.78), reducing prediction error by approximately 20% relative to SVM and ElasticNet. These findings highlight the capacity of ensemble learning techniques to capture complex, non-linear interactions inherent in water quality data. The study makes two principal contributions: (1) the systematic implementation, optimization, and comparison of ensemble and non-ensemble ML models for river pollution prediction on a long-term national dataset; and (2) the identification of ensemble-based methods, particularly CatBoost, as robust and data-driven tools to enhance RPI forecasting and to support informed decision-making in sustainable water resource management.
准确预测河流水质对环境可持续性和公众健康至关重要,特别是在淡水日益稀缺的情况下。本研究开发了一个强大的机器学习(ML)框架来预测河流污染指数(RPI),该框架使用了台湾环境保护署36年的综合全国数据集,涵盖了500多个监测站。我们对集成方法(CatBoost、XGBoost、NGBoost)和非集成基准(SVM、ElasticNet和1D CNN)进行了系统比较。通过贝叶斯优化对超参数进行优化,并通过30次独立实验运行使用一套互补指标(RMSE, MAE, R2, A10指数)评估模型稳定性来确保统计显著性。结果表明,集合模型相对于非集合模型具有一致的优越性。其中,CatBoost的准确率和稳定性最高(RMSE≈0.85,MAE≈0.61,R2 = 0.78),相对于SVM和ElasticNet的预测误差降低了约20%。这些发现突出了集成学习技术捕获水质数据中固有的复杂、非线性相互作用的能力。本研究的主要贡献有两方面:(1)系统实施、优化和比较了基于长期国家数据集的河流污染集成和非集成ML模型;(2)确定基于集合的方法,特别是CatBoost,作为增强RPI预测和支持可持续水资源管理的明智决策的强大数据驱动工具。
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引用次数: 0
Supporting fire behavior modelling with canopy base height and canopy bulk density estimates using airborne and spaceborne lidar 支持使用机载和星载激光雷达进行树冠底部高度和树冠体积密度估算的火灾行为建模
IF 7.3 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2026.103612
Adrian Pascual , Juan Guerra-Hernández , Brigite Botequim , Eduardo González-Ferreiro
The next-generation of fire behavior models must integrate 3D forest structural metrics to better explain fire spread, risk and severity. Canopy base height (CBH) and canopy bulk density (CBD) can be calibrated using lidar data collocated over field plots. Where no airborne lidar scanning data (ALS) exist, GEDI spaceborne lidar can provide 25-m predictions of CBH and CBD contingent to ALS-calibrated workflows. Our research presents GEDI footprint-level estimates of CBH and CBD for Mediterranean forests and builds upon collocated ALS-GEDI crossovers. Our accuracies are based on Random Forests classification: the R2 values for CBH and CBD were < 0.4 for all plant functional types evaluated. The classification of vertical continuity was satisfactory to inform on fire-prone conditions at the GEDI footprint level. Predictions for CBD were aggregated to produce a regional baseline maps, one at 1-km resolution. The usability of these coarse-scale aggregations of fuel estimates is limited because of resolution, presence of gaps and high heterogeneity of forest fuels within small steps. To inform about this heterogeneity and change estimates over time, we predict CBH and CBD over adjacent GEDI tracks collected 5-years apart (2019/24). These change estimates are relevant to show the high variability of the forest fuels that compromises the ability to depict change adding the issue of exact collocation between GEDI measurements that are adjacent, not collocated and therefore not repeated. We discuss methodological differences between our approach and recent studies on mapping fuel baselines and their approach to inform on dynamics.
下一代火灾行为模型必须集成三维森林结构指标,以更好地解释火灾的蔓延、风险和严重程度。冠层基高(CBH)和冠层容重(CBD)可以通过在野外地块上配置的激光雷达数据进行校准。在没有机载激光雷达扫描数据(ALS)的情况下,GEDI星载激光雷达可以根据ALS校准的工作流程提供25米的CBH和CBD预测。我们的研究提出了地中海森林的CBD和CBD的GEDI足迹水平估计,并建立在ALS-GEDI交叉的基础上。我们的准确性基于随机森林分类:在所有评估的植物功能类型中,CBH和CBD的R2值为0.4。垂直连续性的分类是令人满意的通知火灾易发条件在GEDI足迹水平。对CBD的预测被汇总成一个区域基线地图,分辨率为1公里。这些燃料估计的粗略集合的可用性是有限的,因为在小的步骤内森林燃料的分辨率、存在差距和高度异质性。为了了解这种异质性和随时间变化的估计,我们预测了间隔5年(2019/24)收集的相邻GEDI轨道上的CBH和CBD。这些变化估计与显示森林燃料的高度可变性有关,这损害了描述变化的能力,并增加了GEDI测量之间精确搭配的问题,这些测量是相邻的,不是搭配的,因此不会重复。我们讨论了我们的方法和最近关于绘制燃料基线及其动态信息方法的研究之间的方法差异。
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引用次数: 0
Effective indicators to enable robust decision making in the Murray-Darling Basin 有效的指标,使强大的决策在默里-达令盆地
IF 7.3 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2026.103613
Georgia K. Dwyer, Galen Holt, Rebecca E. Lester
Decision making in natural resource management is increasingly challenged by the complexity, uncertainty and volume of information available. This leads to information overload and reduces decision quality. Here, we aim to reduce the degree of redundant information in a highly complex model used to manage environmental outcomes in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia's largest river system. We identified extremely high levels of redundancy with 6–8 hydrological indicators able to explain 98–100% of the variation in the full suite of >2500. Many sets of 6–8 had similar explanatory power, providing flexibility for managers to tailor the subset used, and sets were produced for individual management targets (e.g. native fish, waterbirds) and for individual catchments. These subsets maintained the ability to distinguish between scenarios of plausible future climates and different policy settings, while traditional aggregation techniques did not (particularly for policy settings). Aggregations using key flow categories (e.g. overbank, low flows) were also largely able to distinguish among scenarios. This study is novel in its use of decision science to reduce information overload associated with a commonly used ecological model, illustrating the value of explicitly considering whether complexity in such a model is necessary. Such assessments are rarely undertaken. We illustrated how subsets of complex models provide simple, parsimonious approaches for credible, salient and legitimate decision making under uncertainty, and increase the likelihood of good evidence-based decision making in water management.
自然资源管理决策日益受到可获得信息的复杂性、不确定性和数量的挑战。这会导致信息过载,降低决策质量。在这里,我们的目标是在一个高度复杂的模型中减少冗余信息的程度,该模型用于管理澳大利亚最大的河流系统墨累-达令盆地的环境结果。我们通过6-8个水文指标确定了极高的冗余水平,这些指标能够解释整套>;2500中98-100%的变化。许多6-8组具有类似的解释力,为管理人员量身定制所使用的子集提供了灵活性,并且为个别管理目标(例如本地鱼类,水鸟)和个别集水区制作了组。这些子集保持了区分似是而非的未来气候情景和不同政策设置的能力,而传统的聚合技术则没有(特别是对于政策设置)。使用关键流量类别(例如,过岸、低流量)的聚合在很大程度上也能够区分不同的场景。这项研究的新颖之处在于它使用决策科学来减少与常用生态模型相关的信息过载,说明了明确考虑这种模型的复杂性是否必要的价值。很少进行这种评估。我们说明了复杂模型的子集如何在不确定的情况下为可信、突出和合理的决策提供简单、简约的方法,并增加了水管理中良好的循证决策的可能性。
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Ecological Informatics
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