Amadeu Junior da Silva Fonseca , Roberto Castro , Dorel Soares Ramos , João Carlos de Oliveira Mello , Luiz Célio Souza Rocha , Camila Seibel Gehrke , Edvaldo Pereira Santos Júnior , Wilton Lima Sousa , Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior
{"title":"巴西一座燃油热电厂的退役--特定条件和风险条件下的经济可行性","authors":"Amadeu Junior da Silva Fonseca , Roberto Castro , Dorel Soares Ramos , João Carlos de Oliveira Mello , Luiz Célio Souza Rocha , Camila Seibel Gehrke , Edvaldo Pereira Santos Júnior , Wilton Lima Sousa , Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior","doi":"10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100332","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The strategic analysis for the decommissioning of thermoelectric plants is seen as a trend for the coming years. The search for renewable alternatives should stimulate investment in other energy sources, reducing the number of thermoelectric plants in the energy generation system. However, few studies have dealt with the decommissioning of oil-fired thermoelectric plants. In this work, the methodology was applied under deterministic and stochastic conditions using methods of net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), discounted payback, capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The results showed that the deterministic NPV was positive, ranging from R$101.30 million (pessimistic scenario) to R$109.73 million (optimistic scenario). The IRR was higher than the WACC of 10.55 %, ranging from 13.50 % to 13.68 % per year. For the Monte Carlo simulation, NPV was observed with 100 % certainty of viability and the probabilities of occurrence allowed more analysis of the risks involved than those obtained by deterministic methods. this study contributes to future decommissioning projects in Brazil, considering the scenario of stimulating renewable sources and the energy transition, helping managers make decisions about their projects. In addition, it helps guide public policies that can optimize the decommissioning process and strengthen the national energy sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":34478,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Futures","volume":"8 ","pages":"Article 100332"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Decommissioning of a fuel oil-fired thermoelectric power plant in Brazil - Economic feasibility under certain and risk conditions\",\"authors\":\"Amadeu Junior da Silva Fonseca , Roberto Castro , Dorel Soares Ramos , João Carlos de Oliveira Mello , Luiz Célio Souza Rocha , Camila Seibel Gehrke , Edvaldo Pereira Santos Júnior , Wilton Lima Sousa , Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100332\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>The strategic analysis for the decommissioning of thermoelectric plants is seen as a trend for the coming years. 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For the Monte Carlo simulation, NPV was observed with 100 % certainty of viability and the probabilities of occurrence allowed more analysis of the risks involved than those obtained by deterministic methods. this study contributes to future decommissioning projects in Brazil, considering the scenario of stimulating renewable sources and the energy transition, helping managers make decisions about their projects. 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Decommissioning of a fuel oil-fired thermoelectric power plant in Brazil - Economic feasibility under certain and risk conditions
The strategic analysis for the decommissioning of thermoelectric plants is seen as a trend for the coming years. The search for renewable alternatives should stimulate investment in other energy sources, reducing the number of thermoelectric plants in the energy generation system. However, few studies have dealt with the decommissioning of oil-fired thermoelectric plants. In this work, the methodology was applied under deterministic and stochastic conditions using methods of net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), discounted payback, capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The results showed that the deterministic NPV was positive, ranging from R$101.30 million (pessimistic scenario) to R$109.73 million (optimistic scenario). The IRR was higher than the WACC of 10.55 %, ranging from 13.50 % to 13.68 % per year. For the Monte Carlo simulation, NPV was observed with 100 % certainty of viability and the probabilities of occurrence allowed more analysis of the risks involved than those obtained by deterministic methods. this study contributes to future decommissioning projects in Brazil, considering the scenario of stimulating renewable sources and the energy transition, helping managers make decisions about their projects. In addition, it helps guide public policies that can optimize the decommissioning process and strengthen the national energy sector.
期刊介绍:
Sustainable Futures: is a journal focused on the intersection of sustainability, environment and technology from various disciplines in social sciences, and their larger implications for corporation, government, education institutions, regions and society both at present and in the future. It provides an advanced platform for studies related to sustainability and sustainable development in society, economics, environment, and culture. The scope of the journal is broad and encourages interdisciplinary research, as well as welcoming theoretical and practical research from all methodological approaches.