英国生物库中预测 10 年 ascvd 风险的预防方程和集合队列方程的性能

IF 4.3 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS American journal of preventive cardiology Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ajpc.2024.100782
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引用次数: 0

摘要

治疗领域心血管疾病/心血管疾病风险评估背景汇集队列方程(PCE)创建于 2013 年,用于评估一级预防中的 ASCVD 风险。2023 年,美国心脏协会发布了 PREVENT 方程,用于评估一级预防中的心血管疾病(包括 ASCVD 和心力衰竭)风险。PCE和PREVENT在预测10年ASCVD风险方面的比较性能尚未在外部大规模流行病学队列中进行过评估。方法研究人群包括英国生物库中无临床心血管疾病的参与者。研究对象包括无临床心血管疾病的英国生物库参与者,分别使用PCE和PREVENT方程计算10年ASCVD风险。分别计算男性和女性的 C 统计量(AUC)以评估风险区分度,并使用 DeLong 方法计算相关的 delta AUC。每个方程的预测 10 年风险分为十分位数,并按性别进行分层,以比较每个十分位数内的预测风险和观察风险,并进行 Hosmer-Lemeshow 检验以确定拟合度。观察到的10年ASCVD(95% CI)女性为2.4%(2.31%-2.44%),男性为5.5%(5.45%-5.56%);PCE预测的10年ASCVD风险中位数(IQR)女性为3.6%(1.53%-7.12%),男性为10.6%(5.33%-17.03%)。PREVENT 预测的 10 年 ASCVD 风险中位数为:女性 2.9% (1.47%-4.95%),男性 5.2% (3.02%-7.93%)。女性 PCE 的 C 统计量为 0.732(0.7253-0.7389),男性为 0.695(0.6893-0.7000)。相比之下,PREVENT 的 C 统计量女性为 0.732(0.7249-0.7382),男性为 0.695(0.6894-0.6998)。女性的 Delta AUC 为-0.0009(P=0.36),男性为-0.0009(P=0.21)。图 1 显示了 PCE 和 PREVENT 预测的 10 年 ASCVD 风险均值与各十分位观察到的风险的比较。结论PCE和PREVENT方程在10年ASCVD风险判别方面没有显著差异。然而,与 PCE 相比,PREVENT 方程似乎在预测风险方面校准得更好。
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PERFORMANCE OF PREVENT AND POOLED COHORT EQUATIONS FOR PREDICTING 10 YEAR ASCVD RISK IN THE UK BIOBANK

Therapeutic Area

ASCVD/CVD Risk Assessment

Background

The Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) were created in 2013 to assess ASCVD risk in primary prevention. In 2023 the American Heart Association published the PREVENT equations to assess the risk of cardiovascular disease, including ASCVD and heart failure, in primary prevention. The comparative performance of PCE and PREVENT for predicting 10-year ASCVD risk has not been evaluated in an external large-scale epidemiologic cohort.

Methods

The study population includes participants of the UK Biobank who were free of clinical cardiovascular disease. 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated using the PCE and PREVENT equations, respectively.
Individuals who died from non-ASCVD events, or were lost to follow-up before 10 years without developing ASCVD were excluded. C-statistics (AUCs) were calculated separately for men and women to evaluate risk discrimination, and correlated delta AUCs were calculated using DeLong's method. Predicted 10-year risks were divided into deciles for each equation and stratified by gender to compare predicted risk versus observed risk within each decile, with a Hosmer-Lemeshow test performed for goodness of fit.

Results

The final cohort was 370,885 individuals (mean age 56, 55.3% women, 94.0% white), after excluding 14,604 individuals lost to follow-up before 10 years without developing ASCVD. The observed 10-year ASCVD (95% CI) was 2.4% (2.31%-2.44%) for women and 5.5% (5.45%-5.56%) for men; the median (IQR) PCE predicted 10-year ASCVD risk was 3.6% (1.53%-7.12%) for women and 10.6% (5.33%-17.03%) for men. The median PREVENT predicted 10-year ASCVD risk was 2.9% (1.47%-4.95%) for women and 5.2% (3.02%-7.93%) for men. The C-statistics for PCE were 0.732 (0.7253-0.7389) for women and 0.695 (0.6893-0.7000) for men. In comparison, the C-statistics for PREVENT were 0.732 (0.7249-0.7382) for women and 0.695 (0.6894-0.6998) for men. Delta AUC was -0.0009 (p=0.36) for women and -0.0009 (p=0.21) for men. Figure 1 displays the mean PCE and PREVENT predicted 10-year ASCVD risks compared to observed risks for each decile. The PREVENT equations appear to be better calibrated than the PCE.

Conclusions

There is no significant difference in 10-year ASCVD risk discrimination between PCE and PREVENT equations. However, the PREVENT equations appear to be better calibrated at predicting risk compared to the PCE.
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来源期刊
American journal of preventive cardiology
American journal of preventive cardiology Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
CiteScore
6.60
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0
审稿时长
76 days
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