桥梁故障成本分析

Alberto Contardi , Francesco La Fortezza
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引用次数: 0

摘要

老化桥梁的最佳维护策略是尽可能降低社会总成本的策略,其中每座桥梁的总成本由干预成本加超过极限状态造成的总损失乘以超过极限状态的概率之和表示。每项损失都可以估算为直接费用(倒塌部分的重建、人员伤亡等社会后果、环境影响)和间接损失(基础设施破坏、心理影响)的总和。我们可以通过文献中的研究以及从过去的事故中吸取经验教训来评估巨大的间接成本。如今,我们已经知道许多历史性坍塌事故造成的经济和社会后果,因此有可能找出哪些因素对结果影响最大,并确定各类损失的实际严重程度。本文提供了许多指标,以便对一般桥梁的垮塌成本进行可靠的估算。
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Analysis of the failure costs of a bridge
The preferable maintenance strategy for aged bridges is the one which involves the lowest possible total cost for the community, where for each bridge the total cost is expressed by the sum of the costs of the interventions plus total damages caused by exceeding the limit states multiplied by the probability of exceeding the limit states.
The most delicate and most complex part of the calculation is the determination of damages since the uncertainties involved are many and the values of these parameters may significantly impact on the results of the calculation. Each damage can be estimated as the sum of direct costs (reconstruction of the collapsed part, social consequences like injuries and fatalities, environmental effects) and indirect damages (infrastructure disruption, psychological effects).
Direct costs are quite easy to calculate, but they are also the least significant items. We could evaluate the huge amount of indirect costs using the studies available in literature and also learning from past accidents. Today we know the economic and social consequences of many historical collapses, so it is possible to find out which factors influence the results the most and to determine the real magnitude of each type of damage. In this article many indications are provided to make a reliable estimate of the failure costs for a generic bridge.
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