Incorporating embodied carbon transfer and sequestration service flows into regional carbon neutrality assessment in China

Reliable and effective carbon neutrality assessments are crucial prerequisites for implementing various low-carbon policies and achieving carbon neutrality goals. Although the impact of embodied carbon transfer and carbon sequestration service flows on regional carbon neutrality is becoming increasingly significant, these factors are not effectively incorporated into current carbon neutrality assessments. Based on a thorough review of the literature and theoretical analysis, this study attempts to construct a regional carbon neutrality assessment framework that incorporates embodied carbon transfer and carbon sequestration service flows. This framework is then applied to assess carbon neutrality and its influencing factors in China's provinces. Our findings reveal that carbon emissions and sequestration capacities have increased across Chinese provinces, with the highest emissions in North and East China, and the highest sequestration in Southwest China. Economically developed provinces like Beijing, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu transfer substantial embodied carbon to provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Hebei, while Guangxi, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Qinghai are major providers of carbon sequestration services. Carbon neutrality levels in Chinese provinces show a ring-shaped distribution, increasing from the inner to outer rings. Higher levels are found in Southwest and Northwest provinces (e.g., Yunnan, Qinghai, Guangxi), and lower levels in North and East provinces (e.g., Shanxi, Beijing, Zhejiang). Factors like urbanization rate, population density, per capita GDP, and energy consumption structure negatively impact carbon neutrality levels, whereas ecological land area and annual precipitation have positive impacts. In summary, incorporating embodied carbon transfer and carbon sequestration service flows into the regional carbon neutrality assessment framework facilitates a more comprehensive analysis of regional carbon neutrality levels and their influencing factors. This approach broadens the theoretical and methodological scope of regional carbon neutrality assessments and provides scientific references for the implementation of low-carbon policies and the advancement of carbon neutrality goals.