{"title":"城市地铁运营系统的脆弱性模拟与评估:采用系统动力学方法的混合结构方程模型","authors":"Zongbao Feng , Hongyu Chen , Yang Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104889","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To effectively identify the influence factors of urban metro operation system (UMOS) vulnerability and research the dynamic evolution process of system vulnerability, ensuring the long-term safety of UMOS, a hybrid method integrating structural equation model (SEM) and system dynamic (SD) is proposed to evaluate the UMOS vulnerability. The vulnerability evaluation indexes system of UMOS is established by questionnaire design, which includes four dimensions of personnel, equipment, management and environment. The effectiveness of the method is verified by taking Wuhan metro system in China as an example. The results indicate that (1) The influence of personnel, equipment, management and environment factors on UMOS is 30.2 %, 27.6 %, 21.6 % and 20.6 %, respectively. (2) The passenger flow level and emergency rescue system level have the greatest influence on the vulnerability of UMOS via sensitivity analysis. (3) Extreme weather conditions have the greatest impact on the environment sub-system vulnerability, which in turn affects the UMOS. Hence, the proposed method herein can simulate the long-term vulnerability of the entire UMOS and formulate corresponding improvement measures, thereby achieving sustainable transportation development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104889"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Vulnerability simulation and evaluation of urban metro operation system: A hybrid structural equation model with system dynamics approach\",\"authors\":\"Zongbao Feng , Hongyu Chen , Yang Liu\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104889\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>To effectively identify the influence factors of urban metro operation system (UMOS) vulnerability and research the dynamic evolution process of system vulnerability, ensuring the long-term safety of UMOS, a hybrid method integrating structural equation model (SEM) and system dynamic (SD) is proposed to evaluate the UMOS vulnerability. The vulnerability evaluation indexes system of UMOS is established by questionnaire design, which includes four dimensions of personnel, equipment, management and environment. The effectiveness of the method is verified by taking Wuhan metro system in China as an example. The results indicate that (1) The influence of personnel, equipment, management and environment factors on UMOS is 30.2 %, 27.6 %, 21.6 % and 20.6 %, respectively. (2) The passenger flow level and emergency rescue system level have the greatest influence on the vulnerability of UMOS via sensitivity analysis. (3) Extreme weather conditions have the greatest impact on the environment sub-system vulnerability, which in turn affects the UMOS. Hence, the proposed method herein can simulate the long-term vulnerability of the entire UMOS and formulate corresponding improvement measures, thereby achieving sustainable transportation development.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":13915,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International journal of disaster risk reduction\",\"volume\":\"113 \",\"pages\":\"Article 104889\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International journal of disaster risk reduction\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420924006514\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420924006514","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Vulnerability simulation and evaluation of urban metro operation system: A hybrid structural equation model with system dynamics approach
To effectively identify the influence factors of urban metro operation system (UMOS) vulnerability and research the dynamic evolution process of system vulnerability, ensuring the long-term safety of UMOS, a hybrid method integrating structural equation model (SEM) and system dynamic (SD) is proposed to evaluate the UMOS vulnerability. The vulnerability evaluation indexes system of UMOS is established by questionnaire design, which includes four dimensions of personnel, equipment, management and environment. The effectiveness of the method is verified by taking Wuhan metro system in China as an example. The results indicate that (1) The influence of personnel, equipment, management and environment factors on UMOS is 30.2 %, 27.6 %, 21.6 % and 20.6 %, respectively. (2) The passenger flow level and emergency rescue system level have the greatest influence on the vulnerability of UMOS via sensitivity analysis. (3) Extreme weather conditions have the greatest impact on the environment sub-system vulnerability, which in turn affects the UMOS. Hence, the proposed method herein can simulate the long-term vulnerability of the entire UMOS and formulate corresponding improvement measures, thereby achieving sustainable transportation development.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international.
Key topics:-
-multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters
-the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques
-discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels
-disasters associated with climate change
-vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends
-emerging risks
-resilience against disasters.
The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.