Rising temperatures and sinking hopes: An in-depth analysis of the interplay between climate change, land use patterns, and the desiccation of a global biosphere reserve

Global ecosystems and communities are significantly impacted by climate change and extreme events. The rapid desiccation of massive wetlands, which are essential for controlling water cycles, and biodiversity, preventing floods, and supplying essential ecosystem services, is one of the most upsetting effects. The once-largest lake in the Middle East, Lake Urmia, had a significant impact on ecology, economy, and human life contributing to climate regulation, species preservation, habitat conservation, tourism and recreation, and a wide range of other ecosystem services. The Ramsar Convention classified the lake as a Wetland of International Importance, and UNESCO designated it as a Biosphere Reserve. The ecological, agricultural, and societal challenges caused by rising temperatures, improper water resource management and overuse, enhanced salinity, and declining water levels have made Lake Urmia an acute symbol of environmental vulnerability. Using Landsat imagery, this study begins a thorough analysis of changes in the Lake Urmia basin from 1990 to 2020. The endeavor aims to develop effective conservation and restoration strategies by identifying the multiple reasons that led to its vulnerable situation. The study attempts to identify the role of precipitation, temperature trends, agricultural development, population growth, water consumption, evapotranspiration, and atmospheric salt and aerosol concentrations in the desiccation of the lake. This study presents a comprehensive knowledge of the complex interplay between climate change, human activity, and water management and may have implications for the holistic recovery of the lake. The findings have the potential to improve prognostic models and inform targeted mitigation strategies for not only Lake Urmia but also for other globally threatened wetlands.