极端气候的公共成本:中国城投债的经验证据

IF 6 1区 经济学 Q1 URBAN STUDIES Cities Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI:10.1016/j.cities.2024.105456
Hongxuan Zhang , Yu Qi , Yankun Xu , Zibei Tao , Shuai Shao , Jingyi Zhuang , Yuhan Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

极端气温会恶化政府财政的可持续性,是一种需要识别的公共成本。本文通过将气象站获得的日平均气温划分为十个气温区间,计算一年中属于不同气温区间的天数,并与中国城投债的债券级数据进行比对,估计高温对城投债利差的影响。我们发现,极端气温的增加会导致 UIBs 收益率利差的显著上升。这是因为极端气温削弱了地方政府的担保能力,同时也增加了地方政府通过统借统还债券融资的需求。一系列稳健性验证了结果的稳健性。在进一步分析中,我们探讨了投资者关注度、减缓和适应措施、异质性的影响,并预测了气温变化的长期影响。本文丰富了有关气候变化对公共部门影响、市政债券定价、气候变化对发展中国家影响的文献,并为地方政府的债券管理和财政可持续性提供了可靠的政策启示。
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The public cost of extreme climate: Empirical evidence from China's Urban Investment bonds
Extreme temperature can worsen the sustainability of government finance, and is a public cost that needs to be identified. In this paper, we estimate the impact of high temperatures on spreads of Urban Investment Bond (UIB) by dividing daily mean temperatures obtained from weather stations into ten temperature bins and calculating the number of days in a year that fall into different temperature bins and matching them with China's bond-level data of UIBs. We find that an increase in extreme temperatures results in a significant rise in the yield spreads of UIBs. This is because extreme temperatures weaken the guarantee capacity of local governments as well as increase their demand for financing through UIBs. A series of robustness verify the robustness of the results. In further analysis, we explore the effect of investors' attention, mitigation and adaptation measures, heterogeneity and predicts the long-term impacts of temperature change. This paper enriches the literature on the impacts of climate change on the public sector, on the pricing of municipal bonds, on the impacts of climate change on developing countries, and provides credible policy implications for bond management and fiscal sustainability of local governments.
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来源期刊
Cities
Cities URBAN STUDIES-
CiteScore
11.20
自引率
9.00%
发文量
517
期刊介绍: Cities offers a comprehensive range of articles on all aspects of urban policy. It provides an international and interdisciplinary platform for the exchange of ideas and information between urban planners and policy makers from national and local government, non-government organizations, academia and consultancy. The primary aims of the journal are to analyse and assess past and present urban development and management as a reflection of effective, ineffective and non-existent planning policies; and the promotion of the implementation of appropriate urban policies in both the developed and the developing world.
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