Predator biomass affects west–east shifts in Barents Sea capelin (Mallotus villosus) spawning ground use

Spawning locations of migratory fish influence the environmental and oceanographic fate of eggs and larvae. However, we have an incomplete understanding of how and why realized spawning locations vary. We quantified the yearly variation in spawning location for Barents Sea capelin (Mallotus villosus) within the recognized spawning areas along the coast of northern Norway and Murman. Furthermore, we tested whether water temperature, sea ice cover, predation and capelin fisheries are associated with spawning locations. Estimated spatial variation in spawning longitude used data from Soviet-Russian ichthyoplankton surveys from 1959 to 1993 and a bootstrap procedure. The mean spawning area along the coast was then calculated by combining larvae observations with backtracking a larvae drift model from potential spawning areas. We fitted a generalized additive model (GAM) to assess the effects of environmental conditions on these drift-corrected spawning longitudes. Capelin's mean yearly spawning location varied substantially across the study period. An increase in immature cod biomass, a major predator of capelin, during the spawning migration period in winter and early spring corresponds to more eastward capelin spawning. The eastward shift in mean spawning longitude seems to reach an eastern limit at high immature cod biomass. Sea temperature, sea ice cover and capelin fisheries were not associated with mean capelin spawning longitude. We show that the realized spawning areas for capelin are related to cod biomass, potentially through cod predation depleting and/or acting as a migration barrier for mature capelin.