民粹主义与自由国际秩序:联合国投票模式分析

Sandra Destradi, Johannes Vüllers
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摘要

人们通常认为民粹主义会破坏自由主义的世界秩序,但这一说法从未经过系统检验。在本研究中,我们首次对其进行了检验。基于将民粹主义理解为一种包含反精英主义和人民中心主义的 "薄中心意识形态",我们预计民粹主义政府的外交政策偏好将与美国领导的自由主义国际秩序的核心特征相反。我们的实证分析通过联合国大会的投票来评估政府对自由国际秩序的偏好。我们的研究结果支持这一预期,即民粹主义对与自由国际秩序核心规范相关的外交政策偏好具有强烈的、统计上显著的负面影响。此外,我们还发现,具有左翼意识形态的民粹主义者和民主程度较低国家的民粹主义者往往更反对美国主导的自由国际秩序。然而,民粹主义政府并不排斥联大,因为它们并不比其他国家更有可能缺席联大投票。因此,本研究既为有关民粹主义国际影响的新兴文献做出了贡献,也为有关自由秩序危机的辩论做出了贡献。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Populism and the liberal international order: An analysis of UN voting patterns

Populism is often assumed to undermine the liberal world order, but this claim has never been tested systematically. In this study, we do so for the first time. Based on an understanding of populism as a “thin-centered ideology” entailing anti-elitism and people-centrism, we expect populist governments to have foreign policy preferences opposed to the core features of the US-led liberal international order. Our empirical analysis assesses government preferences on the liberal international order as expressed through UN General Assembly votes. Our findings support the expectation that populism has a strong and statistically significant negative impact on foreign policy preferences related to the core norms of the liberal international order. Moreover, we find that populists with a left-wing ideology and those in less democratic countries tend to be more opposed to the US-led liberal international order. However, populist governments do not reject the UNGA as such, as they are not more likely to be absent from UNGA votes than other states. Thereby, this study makes a contribution both to the burgeoning literature on the international implications of populism and to debates on the crisis of the liberal order.

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