Impact of genotype × environment interaction and selection history on genomic prediction in maize (Zea mays L.)

Breeders made remarkable progress in improving productivity and stability of cultivars. Breeding progress relies on selecting favorable alleles for performance and stability to produce productive varieties across diverse environments. In this study, we analyzed the Genomes to Fields Initiative 2018–2019 genotype by environment interaction (G × E) dataset, focusing on three populations of double haploid (DH) lines derived from crossing inbrexpired Plant Variety Protection (ex-PVP) inbred line PHW65 with inbred lines PHN11, Mo44, and MoG. PHW65 is an Iodent/Lancaster-type inbred; PHN11 is an Iodent type ex-PVP line; Mo44 is a tropical-derived inbred; and MoG is an agronomically poor line derived from the variety Mastadon. Hybrids were produced by crossing the resulting DHs with Stiff Stalk testers PHT69 and LH195. The study's objective was to determine the donor inbreds' relative value and understand the impact of selection history on genomic prediction. We conducted a two-stage analysis to compare hybrid performance and G × E variance of the populations. G × E variance for yield was significantly lower in the PHW65 × PHN11 population relative to the PHW65 × MoG population. The reduced G × E variance of the PHN11 population led to increased indirect prediction accuracy (when training and testing data are drawn from the same population but different environments). In cross-validation, the PHN11 population had the greatest indirect prediction accuracy 45% of the time, followed by the Mo44 population (30%) and the MoG population (25%). Results demonstrate that prediction accuracy was greater in the population with the longest history of selection for favorable alleles (PHN11), contributing to greater yield stability.