基于能见度图技术的全球地缘政治风险对商业周期的时滞效应分析

IF 12.9 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123823

Yunfeng SHANG , Zhongwei XIA , Zhongyi XIAO , Wai Yan SHUM

{"title":"基于能见度图技术的全球地缘政治风险对商业周期的时滞效应分析","authors":"Yunfeng SHANG , Zhongwei XIA , Zhongyi XIAO , Wai Yan SHUM","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123823","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper employs a novel visibility graph technique to explore the time-lagged effects of global geopolitical risks on unemployment rates. This approach aids in understanding and predicting future global economic cycles and conditions. The study reveals that global geopolitical risks impact economic cycles through channels such as WTI crude oil prices and economic policy uncertainty. Specifically, the average lag through WTI crude oil prices is 7.5 months, and through economic policy uncertainty, it is 8.4 months. Furthermore, this paper analyzes the varying lagged effects of global geopolitical risks on economic cycles across different countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"209 ","pages":"Article 123823"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"An analysis of the time-lag effect of global geopolitical risk on business cycle based on visibility graph technique\",\"authors\":\"Yunfeng SHANG , Zhongwei XIA , Zhongyi XIAO , Wai Yan SHUM\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123823\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>This paper employs a novel visibility graph technique to explore the time-lagged effects of global geopolitical risks on unemployment rates. This approach aids in understanding and predicting future global economic cycles and conditions. The study reveals that global geopolitical risks impact economic cycles through channels such as WTI crude oil prices and economic policy uncertainty. Specifically, the average lag through WTI crude oil prices is 7.5 months, and through economic policy uncertainty, it is 8.4 months. Furthermore, this paper analyzes the varying lagged effects of global geopolitical risks on economic cycles across different countries.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48454,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Technological Forecasting and Social Change\",\"volume\":\"209 \",\"pages\":\"Article 123823\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":12.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Technological Forecasting and Social Change\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"91\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162524006218\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"管理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162524006218","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

本文采用了一种新颖的可见度图技术来探讨全球地缘政治风险对失业率的时滞效应。这种方法有助于理解和预测未来的全球经济周期和状况。研究显示，全球地缘政治风险通过 WTI 原油价格和经济政策不确定性等渠道影响经济周期。具体而言，WTI 原油价格的平均滞后期为 7.5 个月，经济政策不确定性的平均滞后期为 8.4 个月。此外，本文还分析了全球地缘政治风险对不同国家经济周期的不同滞后效应。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文

微信好友朋友圈 QQ好友复制链接

本刊更多论文

An analysis of the time-lag effect of global geopolitical risk on business cycle based on visibility graph technique

This paper employs a novel visibility graph technique to explore the time-lagged effects of global geopolitical risks on unemployment rates. This approach aids in understanding and predicting future global economic cycles and conditions. The study reveals that global geopolitical risks impact economic cycles through channels such as WTI crude oil prices and economic policy uncertainty. Specifically, the average lag through WTI crude oil prices is 7.5 months, and through economic policy uncertainty, it is 8.4 months. Furthermore, this paper analyzes the varying lagged effects of global geopolitical risks on economic cycles across different countries.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Multiple-

CiteScore

21.30

自引率

10.80%

发文量

813

期刊介绍： Technological Forecasting and Social Change is a prominent platform for individuals engaged in the methodology and application of technological forecasting and future studies as planning tools, exploring the interconnectedness of social, environmental, and technological factors. In addition to serving as a key forum for these discussions, we offer numerous benefits for authors, including complimentary PDFs, a generous copyright policy, exclusive discounts on Elsevier publications, and more.