流行病传播模型中快速趋近稳定健康状态的最优资源分配

IF 4.4 2区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Applied Mathematical Modelling Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI:10.1016/j.apm.2024.115754
Saber Jafarizadeh
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引用次数: 0

摘要

网络化的易感-感染-易感(SIS)模型作为网络系统内流行病传播的模型,已被广泛研究。在具有 SIS 动态和不稳定健康状态的网络中,一个关键问题是如何在个体之间分配补偿性治疗资源(总成本受限),以确保网络尽快收敛到健康状态。本文针对这一问题提出了一种新方法,即开发一种算法,用于优化给定网络中代理所需的补偿性固化资源的分配。通过将原来的收敛速度优化问题和保证最小收敛速度的附加约束重新表述为标准半定式编程问题,这种解决方法成为可能。所提出的算法适用于任意无向拓扑和 SIS 模型的其他变体,包括具有加权成本函数的变体。在保持对称性的固化率和感染率的情况下,研究表明,具有对称拓扑结构的给定网络上的问题可以简化为一个较小的网络,每个轨道充当一个节点。此外,对于只有一个或两个轨道的网络,问题也得到了分析解决,并包含了几个实例。基于受香港 SARS 和美国 COVID-19 爆发启发的两个不同场景,结果表明该算法的最优结果优于额外固化资源的统一分配。本文还探讨了最佳性能指标如何随额外固化资源总量上限的给定而变化。
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Optimal resource allocation for rapid convergence to stable healthy state in epidemic spreading models
The networked Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model has been widely investigated as a model for the spread of epidemics within networked systems. In networks with SIS dynamics and unstable healthy states, a critical question is how to distribute compensatory curing resources (with constrained total cost) among individuals, ensuring that the network converges to a healthy state as fast as possible. This paper introduces a novel approach to this problem by developing an algorithm for the optimal allocation of compensatory curing resources required by agents in a given network. This solution approach has been made possible by reformulating the original convergence rate optimization problem and an additional constraint guaranteeing a minimum convergence rate as a standard semidefinite programming problem. The applicability of the proposed algorithm to arbitrary undirected topologies and other variations of the SIS model, including the one with a weighted cost function, has been demonstrated. In the case of symmetry preserving curing and infection rates, it has been shown that the problem over a given network with a symmetric topology can be reduced to a smaller network with each orbit acting as a node. Additionally, for networks with one or two orbits, the problem has been addressed analytically, and several examples have been included. Based on two different scenarios inspired by the SARS outbreak in Hong Kong and the COVID-19 outbreak in the USA, it is shown that the algorithm's optimal results outperform the uniform distribution of additional curing resources. The paper also explores how optimal performance metrics change with the given upper limit on the total amount of additional curing resources.
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来源期刊
Applied Mathematical Modelling
Applied Mathematical Modelling 数学-工程:综合
CiteScore
9.80
自引率
8.00%
发文量
508
审稿时长
43 days
期刊介绍: Applied Mathematical Modelling focuses on research related to the mathematical modelling of engineering and environmental processes, manufacturing, and industrial systems. A significant emerging area of research activity involves multiphysics processes, and contributions in this area are particularly encouraged. This influential publication covers a wide spectrum of subjects including heat transfer, fluid mechanics, CFD, and transport phenomena; solid mechanics and mechanics of metals; electromagnets and MHD; reliability modelling and system optimization; finite volume, finite element, and boundary element procedures; modelling of inventory, industrial, manufacturing and logistics systems for viable decision making; civil engineering systems and structures; mineral and energy resources; relevant software engineering issues associated with CAD and CAE; and materials and metallurgical engineering. Applied Mathematical Modelling is primarily interested in papers developing increased insights into real-world problems through novel mathematical modelling, novel applications or a combination of these. Papers employing existing numerical techniques must demonstrate sufficient novelty in the solution of practical problems. Papers on fuzzy logic in decision-making or purely financial mathematics are normally not considered. Research on fractional differential equations, bifurcation, and numerical methods needs to include practical examples. Population dynamics must solve realistic scenarios. Papers in the area of logistics and business modelling should demonstrate meaningful managerial insight. Submissions with no real-world application will not be considered.
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