How risky is to live among us? Assessing the population viability of two South American wild canids in an agroecosystem

Wild canids face a myriad of threats, such as habitat loss and fragmentation, poisoning, gunshot, domestic dog attacks, diseases, roadkill, among others. It is crucial to understand how threats may influence population viability and their extinction risk. Here, we evaluate if and how two wild canids are affected by anthropogenic factors in an agroecosystem landscape in the Cerrado biome, Central Brazil. We also provide data that fills natural history gaps for these carnivores, especially the poor-known hoary fox (Lycalopex vetulus). Over eleven years, we conducted comprehensive monitoring of the endangered hoary fox and its non-endangered counterpart crab-eating fox (Cerdocyon thous). We analyzed six different scenarios based on these canids mortality causes: 1) predation, 2) roadkill, 3) poisoning/gunshot and dog attack, 4) unknown pup mortality, 5) other mortality causes (when we could not conclude what caused the animal's death), and 6) all causes of mortality together. Considering all causes of mortality, the hoary fox exhibits an alarming 80 % probability of extinction. In the scenarios where the species could be extinct, the mean time to extinction was 49 years. In contrast, the crab-eating fox faces no risk of extinction. Our findings are alarming for the hoary fox conservation, once the species is endemic to the Cerrado. Based on our results and employing the IUCN criteria, the hoary fox warrants status as vulnerable to extinction. The implications of our study extend beyond these two species, offering a model for understanding the conservation needs of other wild canids and carnivores living in similar agroecosystems.