Methodology for selecting potential CO2 sinks in Macaronesia: The case of Gran Canaria

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) accounts for 80% of the greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. One of the several ways to mitigate CO₂ emissions is through afforestation, which prevents catastrophic environmental consequences. The mean average emission per tourist in the Canary Islands on their way to the islands is 0.48 Tn. Like most urban cities, the island of Gran Canaria faces the problem of CO₂ emissions due to anthropogenic and human activities. Vegetation coverage significantly influences the distribution of temperature. The correlation between Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of Gran Canaria, using satellite images from Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2, revealed a strong inverse relationship within all land use types, with an R2 value of 0.39. Land suitability analysis is a prerequisite for optimum utilization of available land resources. This study developed a suitability map for afforestation based on land use land cover, topographic, meteorologic, and socio-economic factors. Eight factors, including distance from settlements, land use, distance from the road, distance from water, elevation, slope, precipitation, and temperature, were employed according to previous studies, expert consultation, and land suitability mapping experience. After the criteria decision and data acquisition, maps of each criterion were created and transformed using the Suitability Modeler of ArcGIS Pro. The current study results show that 87% of the total area is suitable for afforestation and reforestation projects in Gran Canaria. Instead of using reactive methods to lessen the effects, the study recommends a proactive approach to climate adaptation through nature-based solutions. The study is part of an umbrella project of the Canary Islands and Spain in general, which considers the contributions of local and institutional stakeholders at different stages of the project. The next stage will be to design a forest afforestation and reforestation project, considering the kind of tree species needed, the methods required to implement it, and the management guidelines about the initial years of installation and growth of the new trees. The most crucial technical choice is which forest species to choose, as it will determine the success of the reforestation effort. The new revegetated space's ability to sequester carbon dioxide will primarily rely on the productivity of the land used for forest reforestation, the species chosen, and the introduced planting density.