Prognostic significance of plasma cytomegalovirus (CMV) DNA load in immunocompetent patients with CMV pneumonia: A retrospective cohort study

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) pneumonia, often presented as pneumonitis, is characterized by respiratory failure and large interstitial infiltrates visible on chest radiographs. This retrospective cohort study investigates the predictive significance of plasma CMV DNA load on the short- and long-term mortality among immunocompetent patients diagnosed with CMV pneumonia. The study included 61 immunocompetent patients suspected of having CMV pneumonia, treated with intravenous ganciclovir after positive CMV DNA results from bronchoalveolar lavage or plasma. Our multivariate Cox regression analysis identified several independent predictors of mortality. Having idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) significantly increased the risk of in-hospital mortality (HR: 7.27, 95% CI: 1.62–32.52, p = 0.009), as did shorter durations of antiviral therapy (HR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.84–0.97, p = 0.005) and higher CMV DNA levels (>3870 IU/mL; HR: 9.63, 95% CI: 2.32–39.98, p = 0.002). High CMV DNA levels (>5154 IU/mL) were also predictors of 30-day mortality (HR: 9.39, 95% CI: 2.20–40.01, p = 0.002). For 1-year mortality, the presence of IPF (HR: 2.96, 95% CI: 1.08–8.06, p = 0.034), hypersensitivity pneumonia (HP) (HR: 4.30, 95% CI: 1.57–11.78, p = 0.005), shorter duration of total antiviral therapy (HR: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.93–0.99, p = 0.010), and higher CMV DNA levels (>327 IU/mL) (HR: 3.36, 95% CI: 1.33–8.47, p = 0.010) were identified as independent determinants. The study reveals that IPF increases short and long-term mortality risks, while HP increases long-term mortality. Extended antiviral treatment duration results in a 10% reduction in in-hospital mortality for each additional day of treatment. Furthermore, elevated viral loads are associated with higher mortality rates, highlighting the necessity for careful monitoring.