根据历史监测的局限性重新解读美国慢性消耗性疾病的出现。

IF 1.1 4区 农林科学 Q3 VETERINARY SCIENCES Journal of Wildlife Diseases Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI:10.7589/JWD-D-24-00077
Mark G Ruder, John R Fischer, Michael W Miller
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们估算了 1997 - 2001 年间在美国大陆自由放养的颈鹿中发现一个或多个慢性消耗性疾病病例的概率(Pdet)。根据各州当局当时报告的样本量以及可检测到的表观流行率(即设计流行率)目标值 0.001(全州每 1000 头动物中有 1 头呈阳性),估计的 Pdet 为
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Reinterpreting Chronic Wasting Disease Emergence in the USA in Light of Historical Surveillance Limitations.

We estimated the probabilities of detecting one or more chronic wasting disease (CWD) cases (Pdet) in free-ranging cervids in the continental US during 1997 - 2001. Based on sample sizes reported by respective state authorities at the time and a target for detectable apparent prevalence (i.e., a design prevalence) of 0.001 (one positive per 1,000 animals statewide), estimated Pdet were <50% for 39/46 states where CWD had not been detected in the wild prior to 1997 and were <5% in 20/26 states located east of the Mississippi River. The survey designs and sample sizes reported by most states prior to 2002 would have yielded exceedingly small detection probabilities for focal CWD outbreaks. Although most CWD foci in the US were first detected in 2002 or after, the data presented here and elsewhere suggest it is plausible that an unknown number of these-some established perhaps decades earlier-were already present but had simply eluded detection. These data highlight uncertainty regarding timelines for CWD emergence in the US. Accepting-and to the extent possible quantifying-uncertainty in the historical distribution of CWD throughout the US seems a necessary foundation for better understanding its emergence, its drivers and patterns of spread, and its response to various interventions-past, present, and future.

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来源期刊
Journal of Wildlife Diseases
Journal of Wildlife Diseases 农林科学-兽医学
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
213
审稿时长
6-16 weeks
期刊介绍: The JWD publishes reports of wildlife disease investigations, research papers, brief research notes, case and epizootic reports, review articles, and book reviews. The JWD publishes the results of original research and observations dealing with all aspects of infectious, parasitic, toxic, nutritional, physiologic, developmental and neoplastic diseases, environmental contamination, and other factors impinging on the health and survival of free-living or occasionally captive populations of wild animals, including fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. Papers on zoonoses involving wildlife and on chemical immobilization of wild animals are also published. Manuscripts dealing with surveys and case reports may be published in the Journal provided that they contain significant new information or have significance for better understanding health and disease in wild populations. Authors are encouraged to address the wildlife management implications of their studies, where appropriate.
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