{"title":"根据历史监测的局限性重新解读美国慢性消耗性疾病的出现。","authors":"Mark G Ruder, John R Fischer, Michael W Miller","doi":"10.7589/JWD-D-24-00077","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We estimated the probabilities of detecting one or more chronic wasting disease (CWD) cases (Pdet) in free-ranging cervids in the continental US during 1997 - 2001. Based on sample sizes reported by respective state authorities at the time and a target for detectable apparent prevalence (i.e., a design prevalence) of 0.001 (one positive per 1,000 animals statewide), estimated Pdet were <50% for 39/46 states where CWD had not been detected in the wild prior to 1997 and were <5% in 20/26 states located east of the Mississippi River. The survey designs and sample sizes reported by most states prior to 2002 would have yielded exceedingly small detection probabilities for focal CWD outbreaks. Although most CWD foci in the US were first detected in 2002 or after, the data presented here and elsewhere suggest it is plausible that an unknown number of these-some established perhaps decades earlier-were already present but had simply eluded detection. These data highlight uncertainty regarding timelines for CWD emergence in the US. Accepting-and to the extent possible quantifying-uncertainty in the historical distribution of CWD throughout the US seems a necessary foundation for better understanding its emergence, its drivers and patterns of spread, and its response to various interventions-past, present, and future.</p>","PeriodicalId":17602,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Wildlife Diseases","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Reinterpreting Chronic Wasting Disease Emergence in the USA in Light of Historical Surveillance Limitations.\",\"authors\":\"Mark G Ruder, John R Fischer, Michael W Miller\",\"doi\":\"10.7589/JWD-D-24-00077\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>We estimated the probabilities of detecting one or more chronic wasting disease (CWD) cases (Pdet) in free-ranging cervids in the continental US during 1997 - 2001. Based on sample sizes reported by respective state authorities at the time and a target for detectable apparent prevalence (i.e., a design prevalence) of 0.001 (one positive per 1,000 animals statewide), estimated Pdet were <50% for 39/46 states where CWD had not been detected in the wild prior to 1997 and were <5% in 20/26 states located east of the Mississippi River. The survey designs and sample sizes reported by most states prior to 2002 would have yielded exceedingly small detection probabilities for focal CWD outbreaks. Although most CWD foci in the US were first detected in 2002 or after, the data presented here and elsewhere suggest it is plausible that an unknown number of these-some established perhaps decades earlier-were already present but had simply eluded detection. These data highlight uncertainty regarding timelines for CWD emergence in the US. Accepting-and to the extent possible quantifying-uncertainty in the historical distribution of CWD throughout the US seems a necessary foundation for better understanding its emergence, its drivers and patterns of spread, and its response to various interventions-past, present, and future.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":17602,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Wildlife Diseases\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Wildlife Diseases\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.7589/JWD-D-24-00077\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"VETERINARY SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Wildlife Diseases","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.7589/JWD-D-24-00077","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"VETERINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Reinterpreting Chronic Wasting Disease Emergence in the USA in Light of Historical Surveillance Limitations.
We estimated the probabilities of detecting one or more chronic wasting disease (CWD) cases (Pdet) in free-ranging cervids in the continental US during 1997 - 2001. Based on sample sizes reported by respective state authorities at the time and a target for detectable apparent prevalence (i.e., a design prevalence) of 0.001 (one positive per 1,000 animals statewide), estimated Pdet were <50% for 39/46 states where CWD had not been detected in the wild prior to 1997 and were <5% in 20/26 states located east of the Mississippi River. The survey designs and sample sizes reported by most states prior to 2002 would have yielded exceedingly small detection probabilities for focal CWD outbreaks. Although most CWD foci in the US were first detected in 2002 or after, the data presented here and elsewhere suggest it is plausible that an unknown number of these-some established perhaps decades earlier-were already present but had simply eluded detection. These data highlight uncertainty regarding timelines for CWD emergence in the US. Accepting-and to the extent possible quantifying-uncertainty in the historical distribution of CWD throughout the US seems a necessary foundation for better understanding its emergence, its drivers and patterns of spread, and its response to various interventions-past, present, and future.
期刊介绍:
The JWD publishes reports of wildlife disease investigations, research papers, brief research notes, case and epizootic reports, review articles, and book reviews. The JWD publishes the results of original research and observations dealing with all aspects of infectious, parasitic, toxic, nutritional, physiologic, developmental and neoplastic diseases, environmental contamination, and other factors impinging on the health and survival of free-living or occasionally captive populations of wild animals, including fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. Papers on zoonoses involving wildlife and on chemical immobilization of wild animals are also published. Manuscripts dealing with surveys and case reports may be published in the Journal provided that they contain significant new information or have significance for better understanding health and disease in wild populations. Authors are encouraged to address the wildlife management implications of their studies, where appropriate.