The impact of SARS-CoV-2 on emergency health care demand: inverse relationship between COVID-like illnesses and ED accesses in Genoa, Italy.

Introduction: SARS-CoV-2 has changed the demand for in-person health care. The aim of this study was to retrospectively analyzed data on access to San Martino Hospital Emergency Department (ED), Genoa, Italy, during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods: Descriptive statistics for 180,117 records of patients accessing the ED between 2019 and 2021 were reported. A linear regression model was built to evaluate the relationship between the weekly number of COVID-like illness cases and ED attendances.

Results: In comparison to pre-pandemic levels, the median number of ED visits declined by 41.6% in 2020 and by 27.4% in 2021. The period of maximum drop in access (-61.9%) was the 2020 12-16th calendar weeks and coincided with the highest rates of COVID-like illness cases (+360%; 22.8% of total ED attendances). About 20% of the variation of the weekly number of ED attendances was explained by the number of COVID-like illness cases. In 2020 and 2021 non-urgent ED codes decreased (-6.7%; -7.3%) and both urgent and emergency ED codes increased (+4.8% and +3.9% the first; +1.9% and +3.5% the second). However, the absolute number of ED access fell drastically for all codes. In particular, the highest increase was registered in 2020 for acute respiratory infections (ARI), including COVID-19 (+3.28%), while traumas and eye diseases saw the highest decrease (-1.02%; -3.80%).

Conclusions: While the reduction in non-urgent visits suggests avoidable pre-pandemic access levels, the decline in non-COVID-19 urgent accesses potentially points to an increase in delayed and missed care.