Multistage carcinogenesis in occupational cholangiocarcinoma: the impact of clonal expansion and risk estimation.

Background: Both mutation induction and clonal expansion of mutated cells cause cancer. The probability of cancer development depends on mutations, clonal growth rates, and carcinogenic mechanisms. A recent study showed cases of occupational cholangiocarcinomas that originate multifocally, with higher mutation burden levels than those in common cholangiocarcinomas. This study aimed to identify the effect of clonal expansion on and estimate the risk of occupational and common intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas (ICCs) using a multistage model modified to include the effect of cell expansion at any carcinogenic stage.

Methods: The age-specific incidence of common ICC estimated from the Vital Statistics in Japan and the prognosis of ICC, and mutation frequencies of occupational and common ICC available from the previous report, were applied to a multistage model modified with cell proliferation effects. From the fittest model, the risk after exposure was estimated.

Results: The required number of stages for carcinogenesis was estimated to be three based on the incidences and mutation frequencies of occupational and common ICCs. Based on this estimation, the predicted incidence curve under the model was similar to that estimated from the ICC mortality rate, except for older adults. The model indicated a minor effect of clonal expansion on the observed occupational ICC risk. It predicted a rapid decrease in ICC risk after the cessation of occupational exposure, although the time of clinical detection of cancer after the exposure was affected by latency. The model predicted an increase in cancer risk in older adults caused by cell expansion and common background mutations. However, the risk in older adults was overestimated in the case of common ICC; this divergence could influence occupational ICC cases.

Conclusions: Three-stage ICC carcinogenesis has been proposed. The high mutation burden levels caused by occupational exposure led to an immediate incidence of cancer. After a long period of relatively low cancer risk, an increased risk in older adults was also predicted.