{"title":"中国人口特应性皮炎患病率趋势（1990-2021 年）及 2022-2030 年预测。","authors":"Jingjing Zhou, Huijing Chen, Shangcheng Zhou, Ailing Liu, Shanshan Liang, Xiaoning Sun, Kaiyue He","doi":"10.1111/pai.14271","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Atopic dermatitis (AD) has the highest disease burden among all skin diseases. However, reports on AD prevalence trends in China are limited. This study aimed to investigate the time trends of AD prevalence in China from 1990 to 2021 and to explore the age and sex differences.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2021. We analyzed the annual percentage change in the crude prevalence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of AD from 1990 to 2021 using the Joinpoint model. We predicted the future prevalence of AD from 2022 to 2030 using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The total ASPR decreased slightly from 1990 (1357.93 per 100,000) to 2021 (1347.11 per 100,000). The ASPR of females (1457.64 per 100,000) was higher than that of males (1247.04 per 100,000) in 2021. The prevalence rate of AD was highest in the under 5 years old age group (3455.56 per 100,000) and the 5-9 years old age group (3360.31 per 100,000). By 2030, the predicted ASPR of AD will be 1394.36 (per 100,000) in males and 1603.69 in females (per 100,000). The predicted prevalence rate in the under 5 years old (3996.14 per 100,000 in males and 3990.68 per 100,000 in females) and 5-9 years old (3714.61 per 100,000 in males and 3963.96 per 100,000 in females) age groups will be higher than those in other age groups.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Despite a slight decrease from 1990 to 2021, there has been an increasing trend since 2015 in the total AD burden. Given the increasing burden of AD on Chinese children and females, healthcare practitioners should enhance community education, improve disease management abilities of patients and caregivers, and reduce the burden and healthcare costs of AD.</p>","PeriodicalId":19929,"journal":{"name":"Pediatric Allergy and Immunology","volume":"35 10","pages":"e14271"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Trends in atopic dermatitis prevalence among the Chinese population (1990-2021) with projections for 2022-2030.\",\"authors\":\"Jingjing Zhou, Huijing Chen, Shangcheng Zhou, Ailing Liu, Shanshan Liang, Xiaoning Sun, Kaiyue He\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/pai.14271\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Atopic dermatitis (AD) has the highest disease burden among all skin diseases. However, reports on AD prevalence trends in China are limited. This study aimed to investigate the time trends of AD prevalence in China from 1990 to 2021 and to explore the age and sex differences.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2021. We analyzed the annual percentage change in the crude prevalence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of AD from 1990 to 2021 using the Joinpoint model. We predicted the future prevalence of AD from 2022 to 2030 using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The total ASPR decreased slightly from 1990 (1357.93 per 100,000) to 2021 (1347.11 per 100,000). The ASPR of females (1457.64 per 100,000) was higher than that of males (1247.04 per 100,000) in 2021. The prevalence rate of AD was highest in the under 5 years old age group (3455.56 per 100,000) and the 5-9 years old age group (3360.31 per 100,000). By 2030, the predicted ASPR of AD will be 1394.36 (per 100,000) in males and 1603.69 in females (per 100,000). The predicted prevalence rate in the under 5 years old (3996.14 per 100,000 in males and 3990.68 per 100,000 in females) and 5-9 years old (3714.61 per 100,000 in males and 3963.96 per 100,000 in females) age groups will be higher than those in other age groups.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Despite a slight decrease from 1990 to 2021, there has been an increasing trend since 2015 in the total AD burden. Given the increasing burden of AD on Chinese children and females, healthcare practitioners should enhance community education, improve disease management abilities of patients and caregivers, and reduce the burden and healthcare costs of AD.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19929,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Pediatric Allergy and Immunology\",\"volume\":\"35 10\",\"pages\":\"e14271\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Pediatric Allergy and Immunology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1111/pai.14271\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ALLERGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Pediatric Allergy and Immunology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/pai.14271","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ALLERGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Trends in atopic dermatitis prevalence among the Chinese population (1990-2021) with projections for 2022-2030.
Background: Atopic dermatitis (AD) has the highest disease burden among all skin diseases. However, reports on AD prevalence trends in China are limited. This study aimed to investigate the time trends of AD prevalence in China from 1990 to 2021 and to explore the age and sex differences.
Methods: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2021. We analyzed the annual percentage change in the crude prevalence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of AD from 1990 to 2021 using the Joinpoint model. We predicted the future prevalence of AD from 2022 to 2030 using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.
Results: The total ASPR decreased slightly from 1990 (1357.93 per 100,000) to 2021 (1347.11 per 100,000). The ASPR of females (1457.64 per 100,000) was higher than that of males (1247.04 per 100,000) in 2021. The prevalence rate of AD was highest in the under 5 years old age group (3455.56 per 100,000) and the 5-9 years old age group (3360.31 per 100,000). By 2030, the predicted ASPR of AD will be 1394.36 (per 100,000) in males and 1603.69 in females (per 100,000). The predicted prevalence rate in the under 5 years old (3996.14 per 100,000 in males and 3990.68 per 100,000 in females) and 5-9 years old (3714.61 per 100,000 in males and 3963.96 per 100,000 in females) age groups will be higher than those in other age groups.
Conclusion: Despite a slight decrease from 1990 to 2021, there has been an increasing trend since 2015 in the total AD burden. Given the increasing burden of AD on Chinese children and females, healthcare practitioners should enhance community education, improve disease management abilities of patients and caregivers, and reduce the burden and healthcare costs of AD.
期刊介绍：
Pediatric Allergy and Immunology is the world''s leading journal in pediatric allergy, publishing original contributions and comprehensive reviews related to the understanding and treatment of immune deficiency and allergic inflammatory and infectious diseases in children.
Other areas of interest include: development of specific and accessory immunity; the immunological interaction during pregnancy and lactation between mother and child.
As Pediatric Allergy and Immunology promotes communication between scientists engaged in basic research and clinicians working with children, we publish both clinical and experimental work.
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