Effects of pay for performance in primary care in an under-registration scenario.

Objective: To propose a method for detecting and analyzing under-registration and highlight its potential financial effect in view of the implementation of the Previne Brasil Program.

Methods: An ecological study was carried out to analyze cytopathological exams in programmatic area 3.1 in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. The data was collected from the Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde (DATASUS - Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System) database, including information on reports from outsourced cytopathology laboratories and those available in the Sistema de Informação em Saúde para a Atenção Básica (SISAB - Health Information System for Primary Care) and the Sistema de Informação do Câncer do Colo do Útero (SISCOLO - Cervical Cancer Information System) of DATASUS/Ministry of Health.

Results: The estimated under-registrations per health unit totaled 108,511 exams in the last two years in the programmatic area 3.1 area, which corresponds to an estimated total of R$ 435,129.00 that would have been foregone if the Previne Brasil Program had been in place during the period studied.

Conclusion: The article's main contribution lies in the presentation of empirical evidence of the potential effects of under-registration on Primary Health Care financing. In addition, there are two other significant findings - firstly, it highlights weaknesses in the process of recording health information inherent to vulnerable regions; secondly, it indicates a vicious circle potentially fueled by sudden changes in Primary Health Care funding conditions, in addition to potential consequences for other levels of care.